Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap
In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction...
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Elsevier B.V.
2018
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11772/3348 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
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ftbartinuniv:oai:acikerisim.bartin.edu.tr:11772/3348 2023-05-15T15:00:09+02:00 Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap Beyaztas, U. and Bickici Arikan, B. and Beyaztas, B.H. and Kahya, E. 2018 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/3348 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 eng eng Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 00221694 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/3348 559 461 470 Journal of Hydrology 2018 ftbartinuniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 2021-06-09T19:48:31Z In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Other/Unknown Material Arctic North Atlantic Bartin University: DSpace@Bartin Arctic Journal of Hydrology 559 461 470 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Bartin University: DSpace@Bartin |
op_collection_id |
ftbartinuniv |
language |
English |
description |
In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. |
author |
Beyaztas, U. and Bickici Arikan, B. and Beyaztas, B.H. and Kahya, E. |
spellingShingle |
Beyaztas, U. and Bickici Arikan, B. and Beyaztas, B.H. and Kahya, E. Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
author_facet |
Beyaztas, U. and Bickici Arikan, B. and Beyaztas, B.H. and Kahya, E. |
author_sort |
Beyaztas, U. and Bickici Arikan, B. and Beyaztas, B.H. and Kahya, E. |
title |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_short |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_full |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_fullStr |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_full_unstemmed |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_sort |
construction of prediction intervals for palmer drought severity index using bootstrap |
publisher |
Elsevier B.V. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11772/3348 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Hydrology |
op_relation |
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 00221694 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/3348 559 461 470 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology |
container_volume |
559 |
container_start_page |
461 |
op_container_end_page |
470 |
_version_ |
1766332265647833088 |