The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sec...
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/1/rousi_etal_nhess_2023_hot_dry_european_summer_2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f825ee5f-0dff-4064-83e3-89bb55b2819b |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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description |
The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5°C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2°C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rousi, Efi Fink, Andreas H Andersen, Lauren S Becker, Florian N Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz Breil, Marcus Cozzi, Giacomo Heinke, Jens Jach, Lisa Niermann, Deborah Petrovic, Dragan Richling, Andy Riebold, Johannes Steidl, Stella Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura Tradowsky, Jordis S Coumou, Dim Düsterhus, André Ellsäßer, Florian Fragkoulidis, Georgios Gliksman, Daniel Handorf, Dörthe Haustein, Karsten Kornhuber, Kai Kunstmann, Harald Pinto, Joaquim G Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten Xoplaki, Elena |
spellingShingle |
Rousi, Efi Fink, Andreas H Andersen, Lauren S Becker, Florian N Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz Breil, Marcus Cozzi, Giacomo Heinke, Jens Jach, Lisa Niermann, Deborah Petrovic, Dragan Richling, Andy Riebold, Johannes Steidl, Stella Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura Tradowsky, Jordis S Coumou, Dim Düsterhus, André Ellsäßer, Florian Fragkoulidis, Georgios Gliksman, Daniel Handorf, Dörthe Haustein, Karsten Kornhuber, Kai Kunstmann, Harald Pinto, Joaquim G Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten Xoplaki, Elena The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
author_facet |
Rousi, Efi Fink, Andreas H Andersen, Lauren S Becker, Florian N Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz Breil, Marcus Cozzi, Giacomo Heinke, Jens Jach, Lisa Niermann, Deborah Petrovic, Dragan Richling, Andy Riebold, Johannes Steidl, Stella Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura Tradowsky, Jordis S Coumou, Dim Düsterhus, André Ellsäßer, Florian Fragkoulidis, Georgios Gliksman, Daniel Handorf, Dörthe Haustein, Karsten Kornhuber, Kai Kunstmann, Harald Pinto, Joaquim G Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten Xoplaki, Elena |
author_sort |
Rousi, Efi |
title |
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
title_short |
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
title_full |
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
title_fullStr |
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
title_sort |
extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/1/rousi_etal_nhess_2023_hot_dry_european_summer_2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f825ee5f-0dff-4064-83e3-89bb55b2819b |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
EPIC3Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Copernicus Publications, 23(5), pp. 1699-1718, ISSN: 1561-8633 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/1/rousi_etal_nhess_2023_hot_dry_european_summer_2018.pdf Rousi, E. , Fink, A. H. , Andersen, L. S. , Becker, F. N. , Beobide-Arsuaga, G. , Breil, M. , Cozzi, G. , Heinke, J. , Jach, L. , Niermann, D. , Petrovic, D. , Richling, A. , Riebold, J. , Steidl, S. , Suarez-Gutierrez, L. , Tradowsky, J. S. , Coumou, D. , Düsterhus, A. , Ellsäßer, F. , Fragkoulidis, G. , Gliksman, D. , Handorf, D. orcid:0000-0002-3305-6882 , Haustein, K. , Kornhuber, K. , Kunstmann, H. , Pinto, J. G. , Warrach-Sagi, K. and Xoplaki, E. (2023) The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective , Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 23 (5), pp. 1699-1718 . doi:10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 <https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023> , hdl:10013/epic.f825ee5f-0dff-4064-83e3-89bb55b2819b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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23 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1699 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:59078 2024-09-30T14:39:31+00:00 The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective Rousi, Efi Fink, Andreas H Andersen, Lauren S Becker, Florian N Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz Breil, Marcus Cozzi, Giacomo Heinke, Jens Jach, Lisa Niermann, Deborah Petrovic, Dragan Richling, Andy Riebold, Johannes Steidl, Stella Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura Tradowsky, Jordis S Coumou, Dim Düsterhus, André Ellsäßer, Florian Fragkoulidis, Georgios Gliksman, Daniel Handorf, Dörthe Haustein, Karsten Kornhuber, Kai Kunstmann, Harald Pinto, Joaquim G Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten Xoplaki, Elena 2023-05-01 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/1/rousi_etal_nhess_2023_hot_dry_european_summer_2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f825ee5f-0dff-4064-83e3-89bb55b2819b unknown Copernicus Publications https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59078/1/rousi_etal_nhess_2023_hot_dry_european_summer_2018.pdf Rousi, E. , Fink, A. H. , Andersen, L. S. , Becker, F. N. , Beobide-Arsuaga, G. , Breil, M. , Cozzi, G. , Heinke, J. , Jach, L. , Niermann, D. , Petrovic, D. , Richling, A. , Riebold, J. , Steidl, S. , Suarez-Gutierrez, L. , Tradowsky, J. S. , Coumou, D. , Düsterhus, A. , Ellsäßer, F. , Fragkoulidis, G. , Gliksman, D. , Handorf, D. orcid:0000-0002-3305-6882 , Haustein, K. , Kornhuber, K. , Kunstmann, H. , Pinto, J. G. , Warrach-Sagi, K. and Xoplaki, E. (2023) The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective , Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 23 (5), pp. 1699-1718 . doi:10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 <https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023> , hdl:10013/epic.f825ee5f-0dff-4064-83e3-89bb55b2819b EPIC3Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Copernicus Publications, 23(5), pp. 1699-1718, ISSN: 1561-8633 Article isiRev 2023 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023 2024-09-02T14:07:29Z The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5°C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2°C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23 5 1699 1718 |