Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models
In this study we assessed the representation of the sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) of the Arctic Ocean in the historical simulation of 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and investigated the projected c...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2022
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:57517 2024-09-15T17:51:09+00:00 Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models Wang, Shizhu Wang, Qiang Wang, Muyin Lohmann, Gerrit Qiao, Fangli 2022-09 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/1/Wangshizhu_FW_CMIP6_2022.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.3053d076-d381-4aa5-bd03-67b28bad8bc2 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/1/Wangshizhu_FW_CMIP6_2022.pdf Wang, S. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Wang, M. , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Qiao, F. (2022) Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models , Earth's Future, 10 (9) . doi:10.1029/2022ef002878 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002878> , hdl:10013/epic.3053d076-d381-4aa5-bd03-67b28bad8bc2 EPIC3Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 10(9), ISSN: 2328-4277 Article NonPeerReviewed 2022 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002878 2024-06-24T04:30:12Z In this study we assessed the representation of the sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) of the Arctic Ocean in the historical simulation of 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and investigated the projected changes in Arctic liquid and solid freshwater content and freshwater budget in scenarios with two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). No significant improvement was found in the SSS and LFWC simulation from CMIP5 to CMIP6, given the large model spreads in both CMIP phases. The overestimation of LFWC continues to be a common bias in CMIP6. In the historical simulation, the multi-model mean river runoff, net precipitation, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening (BSO) freshwater transports are 2,928 ± 1,068, 1,839 ± 3,424, 2,538 ± 1,009, and −636 ± 553 km3/year, respectively. In the last decade of the 21st century, CMIP6 MMM projects these budget terms to rise to 4,346 ± 1,484 km3/year (3,678 ± 1,255 km3/year), 3,866 ± 2,935 km3/year (3,145 ± 2,651 km3/year), 2,631 ± 1,119 km3/year (2,649 ± 1,141 km3/year) and 1,033 ± 1,496 km3/year (449 ± 1,222 km3/year) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5). Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining in the future, and sea ice meltwater flux is likely to decrease to about zero in the mid-21st century under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Liquid freshwater exiting Fram and Davis straits will be higher in the future, and the Fram Strait export will remain larger. The Arctic Ocean is projected to hold a total of 160,300 ± 62,330 km3 (141,590 ± 50,310 km3) liquid freshwater under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5) by 2100, about 60% (40%) more than its historical climatology. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Bering Strait Fram Strait Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Earth's Future 10 9 |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
In this study we assessed the representation of the sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) of the Arctic Ocean in the historical simulation of 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and investigated the projected changes in Arctic liquid and solid freshwater content and freshwater budget in scenarios with two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). No significant improvement was found in the SSS and LFWC simulation from CMIP5 to CMIP6, given the large model spreads in both CMIP phases. The overestimation of LFWC continues to be a common bias in CMIP6. In the historical simulation, the multi-model mean river runoff, net precipitation, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening (BSO) freshwater transports are 2,928 ± 1,068, 1,839 ± 3,424, 2,538 ± 1,009, and −636 ± 553 km3/year, respectively. In the last decade of the 21st century, CMIP6 MMM projects these budget terms to rise to 4,346 ± 1,484 km3/year (3,678 ± 1,255 km3/year), 3,866 ± 2,935 km3/year (3,145 ± 2,651 km3/year), 2,631 ± 1,119 km3/year (2,649 ± 1,141 km3/year) and 1,033 ± 1,496 km3/year (449 ± 1,222 km3/year) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5). Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining in the future, and sea ice meltwater flux is likely to decrease to about zero in the mid-21st century under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Liquid freshwater exiting Fram and Davis straits will be higher in the future, and the Fram Strait export will remain larger. The Arctic Ocean is projected to hold a total of 160,300 ± 62,330 km3 (141,590 ± 50,310 km3) liquid freshwater under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5) by 2100, about 60% (40%) more than its historical climatology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Shizhu Wang, Qiang Wang, Muyin Lohmann, Gerrit Qiao, Fangli |
spellingShingle |
Wang, Shizhu Wang, Qiang Wang, Muyin Lohmann, Gerrit Qiao, Fangli Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
author_facet |
Wang, Shizhu Wang, Qiang Wang, Muyin Lohmann, Gerrit Qiao, Fangli |
author_sort |
Wang, Shizhu |
title |
Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
title_short |
Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
title_full |
Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models |
title_sort |
arctic ocean freshwater in cmip6 coupled models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/1/Wangshizhu_FW_CMIP6_2022.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.3053d076-d381-4aa5-bd03-67b28bad8bc2 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Bering Strait Fram Strait Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Bering Strait Fram Strait Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 10(9), ISSN: 2328-4277 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57517/1/Wangshizhu_FW_CMIP6_2022.pdf Wang, S. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Wang, M. , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Qiao, F. (2022) Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models , Earth's Future, 10 (9) . doi:10.1029/2022ef002878 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002878> , hdl:10013/epic.3053d076-d381-4aa5-bd03-67b28bad8bc2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002878 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1810292973592641536 |