Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
<jats:p>The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information...
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eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
2022
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/1/elife-75163-v1.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b62ce769-c3f4-440e-9c9d-d61183bb9ddb |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:57474 2024-09-15T18:38:38+00:00 Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years Kruse, Stefan Herzschuh, Ulrike 2022-05-24 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/1/elife-75163-v1.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b62ce769-c3f4-440e-9c9d-d61183bb9ddb unknown eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/1/elife-75163-v1.pdf Kruse, S. orcid:0000-0003-1107-1958 and Herzschuh, U. orcid:0000-0003-0999-1261 (2022) Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years , eLife, 11 , e75163-e75163 . doi:10.7554/elife.75163 <https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.75163> , hdl:10013/epic.b62ce769-c3f4-440e-9c9d-d61183bb9ddb EPIC3eLife, eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd, 11, pp. e75163-e75163, ISSN: 2050-084X Article NonPeerReviewed 2022 ftawi https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.75163 2024-06-24T04:30:12Z <jats:p>The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ∼30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.</jats:p> Article in Journal/Newspaper taiga Tundra Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) eLife 11 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
<jats:p>The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ∼30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.</jats:p> |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kruse, Stefan Herzschuh, Ulrike |
spellingShingle |
Kruse, Stefan Herzschuh, Ulrike Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
author_facet |
Kruse, Stefan Herzschuh, Ulrike |
author_sort |
Kruse, Stefan |
title |
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
title_short |
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
title_full |
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
title_fullStr |
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
title_sort |
regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years |
publisher |
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/1/elife-75163-v1.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b62ce769-c3f4-440e-9c9d-d61183bb9ddb |
genre |
taiga Tundra |
genre_facet |
taiga Tundra |
op_source |
EPIC3eLife, eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd, 11, pp. e75163-e75163, ISSN: 2050-084X |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57474/1/elife-75163-v1.pdf Kruse, S. orcid:0000-0003-1107-1958 and Herzschuh, U. orcid:0000-0003-0999-1261 (2022) Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years , eLife, 11 , e75163-e75163 . doi:10.7554/elife.75163 <https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.75163> , hdl:10013/epic.b62ce769-c3f4-440e-9c9d-d61183bb9ddb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.75163 |
container_title |
eLife |
container_volume |
11 |
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1810483034149879808 |