ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ic...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/1/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.c1060ea3-fe30-46d7-b48b-fb77acb48c5c https://hdl.handle.net/ |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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description |
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, Hélène Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Seroussi, Hélène Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
author_facet |
Seroussi, Hélène Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Seroussi, Hélène |
title |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_short |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_sort |
ismip6 antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/1/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.c1060ea3-fe30-46d7-b48b-fb77acb48c5c https://hdl.handle.net/ |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
EPIC3The Cryosphere, 14(9), pp. 3033-3070, ISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/1/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Seroussi, H. , Nowicki, S. , Payne, A. J. , Goelzer, H. , Lipscomb, W. H. , Abe-Ouchi, A. , Agosta, C. , Albrecht, T. , Asay-Davis, X. , Barthel, A. , Calov, R. , Cullather, R. , Dumas, C. , Galton-Fenzi, B. K. , Gladstone, R. , Golledge, N. R. , Gregory, J. M. , Greve, R. , Hattermann, T. , Hoffman, M. J. , Humbert, A. orcid:0000-0002-0244-8760 , Huybrechts, P. , Jourdain, N. C. , Kleiner, T. orcid:0000-0001-7825-5765 , Larour, E. , Leguy, G. R. , Lowry, D. P. , Little, C. M. , Morlighem, M. , Pattyn, F. , Pelle, T. , Price, S. F. , Quiquet, A. , Reese, R. , Schlegel, N. J. , Shepherd, A. , Simon, E. , Smith, R. S. , Straneo, F. , Sun, S. , Trusel, L. D. , Van Breedam, J. , van de Wal, R. S. W. , Winkelmann, R. , Zhao, C. , Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2020) ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century , The Cryosphere, 14 (9), pp. 3033-3070 . doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020> , hdl:10013/epic.c1060ea3-fe30-46d7-b48b-fb77acb48c5c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3033 |
op_container_end_page |
3070 |
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1766223146583588864 |
spelling |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:56854 2023-05-15T13:45:22+02:00 ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century Seroussi, Hélène Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2020 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/1/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.c1060ea3-fe30-46d7-b48b-fb77acb48c5c https://hdl.handle.net/ unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56854/1/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Seroussi, H. , Nowicki, S. , Payne, A. J. , Goelzer, H. , Lipscomb, W. H. , Abe-Ouchi, A. , Agosta, C. , Albrecht, T. , Asay-Davis, X. , Barthel, A. , Calov, R. , Cullather, R. , Dumas, C. , Galton-Fenzi, B. K. , Gladstone, R. , Golledge, N. R. , Gregory, J. M. , Greve, R. , Hattermann, T. , Hoffman, M. J. , Humbert, A. orcid:0000-0002-0244-8760 , Huybrechts, P. , Jourdain, N. C. , Kleiner, T. orcid:0000-0001-7825-5765 , Larour, E. , Leguy, G. R. , Lowry, D. P. , Little, C. M. , Morlighem, M. , Pattyn, F. , Pelle, T. , Price, S. F. , Quiquet, A. , Reese, R. , Schlegel, N. J. , Shepherd, A. , Simon, E. , Smith, R. S. , Straneo, F. , Sun, S. , Trusel, L. D. , Van Breedam, J. , van de Wal, R. S. W. , Winkelmann, R. , Zhao, C. , Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2020) ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century , The Cryosphere, 14 (9), pp. 3033-3070 . doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020> , hdl:10013/epic.c1060ea3-fe30-46d7-b48b-fb77acb48c5c EPIC3The Cryosphere, 14(9), pp. 3033-3070, ISSN: 1994-0424 Article isiRev 2020 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 2022-10-02T23:12:39Z Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 14 9 3033 3070 |