Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar A...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Nature Research
2022
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/1/Smith_2022.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28283-y https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.ba84fad9-cf5b-42d6-bf48-1d3746ebd79c |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:56471 2024-09-09T19:16:36+00:00 Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss Smith, D. M. Eade, R. Andrews, M. B. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, Clara Dunstone, N. J. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, G. Graff, L. S. Hardiman, S. C. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, Thomas Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. A. Screen, J. A. Seabrook, M. Semmler, Tido Sigmond, M. Streffing, Jan Sun, L. Walsh, A. 2022-02-07 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/1/Smith_2022.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28283-y https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.ba84fad9-cf5b-42d6-bf48-1d3746ebd79c unknown Nature Research https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/1/Smith_2022.pdf Smith, D. M. , Eade, R. , Andrews, M. B. , Ayres, H. , Clark, A. , Chripko, S. , Deser, C. , Dunstone, N. J. , García-Serrano, J. , Gastineau, G. , Graff, L. S. , Hardiman, S. C. , He, B. , Hermanson, L. , Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 , Knight, J. , Levine, X. , Magnusdottir, G. , Manzini, E. , Matei, D. , Mori, M. , Msadek, R. , Ortega, P. , Peings, Y. , Scaife, A. A. , Screen, J. A. , Seabrook, M. , Semmler, T. orcid:0000-0002-2254-4901 , Sigmond, M. , Streffing, J. orcid:0000-0001-9515-3322 , Sun, L. and Walsh, A. (2022) Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss , Nature Communications, 13 , p. 727 . doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y> , hdl:10013/epic.ba84fad9-cf5b-42d6-bf48-1d3746ebd79c info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Nature Communications, Nature Research, 13, pp. 727, ISSN: 2041-1723 Article NonPeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y 2024-06-24T04:28:46Z The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Nature Communications 13 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smith, D. M. Eade, R. Andrews, M. B. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, Clara Dunstone, N. J. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, G. Graff, L. S. Hardiman, S. C. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, Thomas Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. A. Screen, J. A. Seabrook, M. Semmler, Tido Sigmond, M. Streffing, Jan Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
spellingShingle |
Smith, D. M. Eade, R. Andrews, M. B. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, Clara Dunstone, N. J. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, G. Graff, L. S. Hardiman, S. C. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, Thomas Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. A. Screen, J. A. Seabrook, M. Semmler, Tido Sigmond, M. Streffing, Jan Sun, L. Walsh, A. Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
author_facet |
Smith, D. M. Eade, R. Andrews, M. B. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, Clara Dunstone, N. J. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, G. Graff, L. S. Hardiman, S. C. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, Thomas Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. A. Screen, J. A. Seabrook, M. Semmler, Tido Sigmond, M. Streffing, Jan Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
author_sort |
Smith, D. M. |
title |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/1/Smith_2022.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28283-y https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.ba84fad9-cf5b-42d6-bf48-1d3746ebd79c |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Nature Communications, Nature Research, 13, pp. 727, ISSN: 2041-1723 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56471/1/Smith_2022.pdf Smith, D. M. , Eade, R. , Andrews, M. B. , Ayres, H. , Clark, A. , Chripko, S. , Deser, C. , Dunstone, N. J. , García-Serrano, J. , Gastineau, G. , Graff, L. S. , Hardiman, S. C. , He, B. , Hermanson, L. , Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 , Knight, J. , Levine, X. , Magnusdottir, G. , Manzini, E. , Matei, D. , Mori, M. , Msadek, R. , Ortega, P. , Peings, Y. , Scaife, A. A. , Screen, J. A. , Seabrook, M. , Semmler, T. orcid:0000-0002-2254-4901 , Sigmond, M. , Streffing, J. orcid:0000-0001-9515-3322 , Sun, L. and Walsh, A. (2022) Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss , Nature Communications, 13 , p. 727 . doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y> , hdl:10013/epic.ba84fad9-cf5b-42d6-bf48-1d3746ebd79c |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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13 |
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1 |
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1809756786399379456 |