The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity

We examine the historical evolution and projected changes in the hydrography of the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that t...

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Published in:Earth's Future
Main Authors: Khosravi, Narges, Wang, Qiang, Koldunov, Nikolay, Hinrichs, Claudia, Semmler, Tido, Danilov, Sergey, Jung, Thomas
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/1/Khosravi2022.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282
https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f3c34d93-1b42-4e1f-bfee-fd5bb7b004e9
id ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:55862
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spelling ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:55862 2024-09-15T17:51:35+00:00 The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity Khosravi, Narges Wang, Qiang Koldunov, Nikolay Hinrichs, Claudia Semmler, Tido Danilov, Sergey Jung, Thomas 2022-01 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/1/Khosravi2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f3c34d93-1b42-4e1f-bfee-fd5bb7b004e9 unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/1/Khosravi2022.pdf Khosravi, N. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Koldunov, N. orcid:0000-0002-3365-8146 , Hinrichs, C. orcid:0000-0001-5668-9167 , Semmler, T. orcid:0000-0002-2254-4901 , Danilov, S. orcid:0000-0001-8098-182X and Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 (2022) The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity , Earth's Future, 10 (2) . doi:10.1029/2021EF002282 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282> , hdl:10013/epic.f3c34d93-1b42-4e1f-bfee-fd5bb7b004e9 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Earth's Future, 10(2), ISSN: 2328-4277 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282 2024-06-24T04:28:46Z We examine the historical evolution and projected changes in the hydrography of the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and thick in the majority of models, including the multi-model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. Overall our findings indicate that there is no obvious improvement in the representation of the Arctic hydrography in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The climate change projections reveal that the sub-Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, causing a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged over the upper 700 m at the end of the 21st century is about 40% and 60% higher in the Arctic Ocean than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Salinity in the upper few hundred meters is projected to decrease in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the spread in projected salinity changes is large and the tendency toward stronger halocline in the MMM is not simulated by all the models. The identified biases and projection uncertainties call for a concerted effort for major improvements of coupled climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Earth's Future 10 2
institution Open Polar
collection Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center)
op_collection_id ftawi
language unknown
description We examine the historical evolution and projected changes in the hydrography of the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and thick in the majority of models, including the multi-model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. Overall our findings indicate that there is no obvious improvement in the representation of the Arctic hydrography in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The climate change projections reveal that the sub-Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, causing a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged over the upper 700 m at the end of the 21st century is about 40% and 60% higher in the Arctic Ocean than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Salinity in the upper few hundred meters is projected to decrease in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the spread in projected salinity changes is large and the tendency toward stronger halocline in the MMM is not simulated by all the models. The identified biases and projection uncertainties call for a concerted effort for major improvements of coupled climate models.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Khosravi, Narges
Wang, Qiang
Koldunov, Nikolay
Hinrichs, Claudia
Semmler, Tido
Danilov, Sergey
Jung, Thomas
spellingShingle Khosravi, Narges
Wang, Qiang
Koldunov, Nikolay
Hinrichs, Claudia
Semmler, Tido
Danilov, Sergey
Jung, Thomas
The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
author_facet Khosravi, Narges
Wang, Qiang
Koldunov, Nikolay
Hinrichs, Claudia
Semmler, Tido
Danilov, Sergey
Jung, Thomas
author_sort Khosravi, Narges
title The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
title_short The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
title_full The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
title_fullStr The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
title_full_unstemmed The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity
title_sort arctic ocean in cmip6 models: biases and projected changes in temperature and salinity
publishDate 2022
url https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/1/Khosravi2022.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282
https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f3c34d93-1b42-4e1f-bfee-fd5bb7b004e9
genre Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
op_source EPIC3Earth's Future, 10(2), ISSN: 2328-4277
op_relation https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/55862/1/Khosravi2022.pdf
Khosravi, N. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Koldunov, N. orcid:0000-0002-3365-8146 , Hinrichs, C. orcid:0000-0001-5668-9167 , Semmler, T. orcid:0000-0002-2254-4901 , Danilov, S. orcid:0000-0001-8098-182X and Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 (2022) The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity , Earth's Future, 10 (2) . doi:10.1029/2021EF002282 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282> , hdl:10013/epic.f3c34d93-1b42-4e1f-bfee-fd5bb7b004e9
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002282
container_title Earth's Future
container_volume 10
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