Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of d...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/1/Virkkala_etal_2021_GCB.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b1ae4625-1c20-446e-a288-a9108f9f39b4 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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description |
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Virkkala, Anna‐Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C Natali, Susan M Watts, Jennifer D Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward AG Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M Euskirchen, Eugenie S Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L Emmerton, Craig A Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B Oberbauer, Steven F Torn, Margaret S Park, Sang‐Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López‐Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
spellingShingle |
Virkkala, Anna‐Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C Natali, Susan M Watts, Jennifer D Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward AG Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M Euskirchen, Eugenie S Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L Emmerton, Craig A Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B Oberbauer, Steven F Torn, Margaret S Park, Sang‐Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López‐Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
author_facet |
Virkkala, Anna‐Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C Natali, Susan M Watts, Jennifer D Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward AG Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M Euskirchen, Eugenie S Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L Emmerton, Craig A Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B Oberbauer, Steven F Torn, Margaret S Park, Sang‐Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López‐Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Virkkala, Anna‐Maria |
title |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_short |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_sort |
statistical upscaling of ecosystem co 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: regional patterns and uncertainties |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/1/Virkkala_etal_2021_GCB.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b1ae4625-1c20-446e-a288-a9108f9f39b4 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
EPIC3Global Change Biology, 27(17), pp. 4040-4059, ISSN: 1354-1013 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/1/Virkkala_etal_2021_GCB.pdf Virkkala, A. , Aalto, J. , Rogers, B. M. , Tagesson, T. , Treat, C. C. orcid:0000-0002-1225-8178 , Natali, S. M. , Watts, J. D. , Potter, S. , Lehtonen, A. , Mauritz, M. , Schuur, E. A. , Kochendorfer, J. , Zona, D. , Oechel, W. , Kobayashi, H. , Humphreys, E. , Goeckede, M. , Iwata, H. , Lafleur, P. M. , Euskirchen, E. S. , Bokhorst, S. , Marushchak, M. , Martikainen, P. J. , Elberling, B. , Voigt, C. , Biasi, C. , Sonnentag, O. , Parmentier, F. W. , Ueyama, M. , Celis, G. , St.Louis, V. L. , Emmerton, C. A. , Peichl, M. , Chi, J. , Järveoja, J. , Nilsson, M. B. , Oberbauer, S. F. , Torn, M. S. , Park, S. , Dolman, H. , Mammarella, I. , Chae, N. , Poyatos, R. , López‐Blanco, E. , Christensen, T. R. , Kwon, M. J. , Sachs, T. , Holl, D. and Luoto, M. (2021) Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties , Global Change Biology, 27 (17), pp. 4040-4059 . doi:10.1111/gcb.15659 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659> , hdl:10013/epic.b1ae4625-1c20-446e-a288-a9108f9f39b4 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
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17 |
container_start_page |
4040 |
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4059 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:54567 2024-05-19T07:49:37+00:00 Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties Virkkala, Anna‐Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C Natali, Susan M Watts, Jennifer D Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward AG Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M Euskirchen, Eugenie S Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L Emmerton, Craig A Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B Oberbauer, Steven F Torn, Margaret S Park, Sang‐Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López‐Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska 2021-09-01 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/1/Virkkala_etal_2021_GCB.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b1ae4625-1c20-446e-a288-a9108f9f39b4 unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/54567/1/Virkkala_etal_2021_GCB.pdf Virkkala, A. , Aalto, J. , Rogers, B. M. , Tagesson, T. , Treat, C. C. orcid:0000-0002-1225-8178 , Natali, S. M. , Watts, J. D. , Potter, S. , Lehtonen, A. , Mauritz, M. , Schuur, E. A. , Kochendorfer, J. , Zona, D. , Oechel, W. , Kobayashi, H. , Humphreys, E. , Goeckede, M. , Iwata, H. , Lafleur, P. M. , Euskirchen, E. S. , Bokhorst, S. , Marushchak, M. , Martikainen, P. J. , Elberling, B. , Voigt, C. , Biasi, C. , Sonnentag, O. , Parmentier, F. W. , Ueyama, M. , Celis, G. , St.Louis, V. L. , Emmerton, C. A. , Peichl, M. , Chi, J. , Järveoja, J. , Nilsson, M. B. , Oberbauer, S. F. , Torn, M. S. , Park, S. , Dolman, H. , Mammarella, I. , Chae, N. , Poyatos, R. , López‐Blanco, E. , Christensen, T. R. , Kwon, M. J. , Sachs, T. , Holl, D. and Luoto, M. (2021) Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties , Global Change Biology, 27 (17), pp. 4040-4059 . doi:10.1111/gcb.15659 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659> , hdl:10013/epic.b1ae4625-1c20-446e-a288-a9108f9f39b4 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Global Change Biology, 27(17), pp. 4040-4059, ISSN: 1354-1013 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 2024-04-23T23:38:07Z The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Global Change Biology 27 17 4040 4059 |