Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone
Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PF...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Springer Nature Limited
2021
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/1/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications.pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/2/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications_suppl.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.96ac4c09-c48a-4986-8600-133a65a421fb https://hdl.handle.net/ |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:53874 2023-05-15T14:27:52+02:00 Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone von der Gathen, Peter Kivi, Rigel Wohltmann, Ingo Salawitch, Ross J. Rex, Markus 2021-06-23 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/1/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications.pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/2/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications_suppl.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.96ac4c09-c48a-4986-8600-133a65a421fb https://hdl.handle.net/ unknown Springer Nature Limited https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/1/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/2/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications_suppl.pdf von der Gathen, P. orcid:0000-0001-7409-1556 , Kivi, R. orcid:0000-0001-8828-2759 , Wohltmann, I. orcid:0000-0003-4606-6788 , Salawitch, R. J. orcid:0000-0001-8597-5832 and Rex, M. orcid:0000-0001-7847-8221 (2021) Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone , Nature Communications, 12 (3886) . doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6> , hdl:10013/epic.96ac4c09-c48a-4986-8600-133a65a421fb EPIC3Nature Communications, Springer Nature Limited, 12(3886) Article isiRev 2021 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6 2021-12-24T15:46:13Z Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP^LM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP^LM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP^LM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP^LM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
von der Gathen, Peter Kivi, Rigel Wohltmann, Ingo Salawitch, Ross J. Rex, Markus |
spellingShingle |
von der Gathen, Peter Kivi, Rigel Wohltmann, Ingo Salawitch, Ross J. Rex, Markus Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
author_facet |
von der Gathen, Peter Kivi, Rigel Wohltmann, Ingo Salawitch, Ross J. Rex, Markus |
author_sort |
von der Gathen, Peter |
title |
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
title_short |
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
title_full |
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
title_fullStr |
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone |
title_sort |
climate change favours large seasonal loss of arctic ozone |
publisher |
Springer Nature Limited |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/1/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications.pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/2/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications_suppl.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.96ac4c09-c48a-4986-8600-133a65a421fb https://hdl.handle.net/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
EPIC3Nature Communications, Springer Nature Limited, 12(3886) |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/1/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53874/2/Gathen_et_al-2021-Nature_Communications_suppl.pdf von der Gathen, P. orcid:0000-0001-7409-1556 , Kivi, R. orcid:0000-0001-8828-2759 , Wohltmann, I. orcid:0000-0003-4606-6788 , Salawitch, R. J. orcid:0000-0001-8597-5832 and Rex, M. orcid:0000-0001-7847-8221 (2021) Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone , Nature Communications, 12 (3886) . doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6> , hdl:10013/epic.96ac4c09-c48a-4986-8600-133a65a421fb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766301914916454400 |