The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of clima...
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53211/ https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.7682ac44-6a28-4805-9b15-71f3e075b445 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:53211 2024-09-09T19:45:27+00:00 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity Haywood, Alan M. Tindall, Julia C. Dowsett, Harry J. Dolan, Aisling M. Foley, Kevin M. Hunter, Stephen J. Hill, Daniel J. Chan, Wing-Le Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Kamae, Youichi Chandler, Mark A. Sohl, Linda E. Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Brady, Esther C. von der Heydt, Anna S. Baatsen, Michiel L. J. Lunt, Daniel J. 2020-11-04 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53211/ https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.7682ac44-6a28-4805-9b15-71f3e075b445 unknown Copernicus Haywood, A. M. , Tindall, J. C. , Dowsett, H. J. , Dolan, A. M. , Foley, K. M. , Hunter, S. J. , Hill, D. J. , Chan, W. L. , Abe-Ouchi, A. , Stepanek, C. orcid:0000-0002-3912-6271 , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X , Chandan, D. , Peltier, W. R. , Tan, N. , Contoux, C. , Ramstein, G. , Li, X. , Zhang, Z. , Guo, C. , Nisancioglu, K. H. , Zhang, Q. , Li, Q. , Kamae, Y. , Chandler, M. A. , Sohl, L. E. , Otto-Bliesner, B. L. , Feng, R. , Brady, E. C. , von der Heydt, A. S. , Baatsen, M. L. J. and Lunt, D. J. (2020) The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity , Climate of the Past, 16 (6), pp. 2095-2123 . doi:10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 <https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020> , hdl:10013/epic.7682ac44-6a28-4805-9b15-71f3e075b445 EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(6), pp. 2095-2123, ISSN: 1814-9332 Article isiRev 2020 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 2024-06-24T04:26:11Z The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Pacific Climate of the Past 16 6 2095 2123 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Haywood, Alan M. Tindall, Julia C. Dowsett, Harry J. Dolan, Aisling M. Foley, Kevin M. Hunter, Stephen J. Hill, Daniel J. Chan, Wing-Le Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Kamae, Youichi Chandler, Mark A. Sohl, Linda E. Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Brady, Esther C. von der Heydt, Anna S. Baatsen, Michiel L. J. Lunt, Daniel J. |
spellingShingle |
Haywood, Alan M. Tindall, Julia C. Dowsett, Harry J. Dolan, Aisling M. Foley, Kevin M. Hunter, Stephen J. Hill, Daniel J. Chan, Wing-Le Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Kamae, Youichi Chandler, Mark A. Sohl, Linda E. Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Brady, Esther C. von der Heydt, Anna S. Baatsen, Michiel L. J. Lunt, Daniel J. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
author_facet |
Haywood, Alan M. Tindall, Julia C. Dowsett, Harry J. Dolan, Aisling M. Foley, Kevin M. Hunter, Stephen J. Hill, Daniel J. Chan, Wing-Le Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Stepanek, Christian Lohmann, Gerrit Chandan, Deepak Peltier, W. Richard Tan, Ning Contoux, Camille Ramstein, Gilles Li, Xiangyu Zhang, Zhongshi Guo, Chuncheng Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Zhang, Qiong Li, Qiang Kamae, Youichi Chandler, Mark A. Sohl, Linda E. Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Brady, Esther C. von der Heydt, Anna S. Baatsen, Michiel L. J. Lunt, Daniel J. |
author_sort |
Haywood, Alan M. |
title |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_short |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_full |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_fullStr |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_sort |
pliocene model intercomparison project phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53211/ https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.7682ac44-6a28-4805-9b15-71f3e075b445 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(6), pp. 2095-2123, ISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
Haywood, A. M. , Tindall, J. C. , Dowsett, H. J. , Dolan, A. M. , Foley, K. M. , Hunter, S. J. , Hill, D. J. , Chan, W. L. , Abe-Ouchi, A. , Stepanek, C. orcid:0000-0002-3912-6271 , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X , Chandan, D. , Peltier, W. R. , Tan, N. , Contoux, C. , Ramstein, G. , Li, X. , Zhang, Z. , Guo, C. , Nisancioglu, K. H. , Zhang, Q. , Li, Q. , Kamae, Y. , Chandler, M. A. , Sohl, L. E. , Otto-Bliesner, B. L. , Feng, R. , Brady, E. C. , von der Heydt, A. S. , Baatsen, M. L. J. and Lunt, D. J. (2020) The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity , Climate of the Past, 16 (6), pp. 2095-2123 . doi:10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 <https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020> , hdl:10013/epic.7682ac44-6a28-4805-9b15-71f3e075b445 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 |
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Climate of the Past |
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16 |
container_issue |
6 |
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2095 |
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2123 |
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1809915051563286528 |