High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate
The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regi...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/1/Karjalainen_et_al_2020_ERL.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.64c53dd5-db9c-4880-9ce8-7b72e3cee66e https://hdl.handle.net/ |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:53112 2023-05-15T15:00:38+02:00 High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan 2020-10-02 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/1/Karjalainen_et_al_2020_ERL.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.64c53dd5-db9c-4880-9ce8-7b72e3cee66e https://hdl.handle.net/ unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/1/Karjalainen_et_al_2020_ERL.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Karjalainen, O. , Luoto, M. , Aalto, J. , Etzelmüller, B. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Jones, B. M. , Lilleøren, K. S. and Hjort, J. (2020) High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate , Environmental Research Letters, 15 (10), p. 104065 . doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fabafd5> , hdl:10013/epic.64c53dd5-db9c-4880-9ce8-7b72e3cee66e info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Environmental Research Letters, 15(10), pp. 104065, ISSN: 1748-9326 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 2021-12-24T15:45:56Z The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 15 10 104065 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan |
spellingShingle |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
author_facet |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan |
author_sort |
Karjalainen, Olli |
title |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_short |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_full |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_fullStr |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_sort |
high potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/1/Karjalainen_et_al_2020_ERL.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.64c53dd5-db9c-4880-9ce8-7b72e3cee66e https://hdl.handle.net/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* |
op_source |
EPIC3Environmental Research Letters, 15(10), pp. 104065, ISSN: 1748-9326 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/53112/1/Karjalainen_et_al_2020_ERL.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Karjalainen, O. , Luoto, M. , Aalto, J. , Etzelmüller, B. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Jones, B. M. , Lilleøren, K. S. and Hjort, J. (2020) High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate , Environmental Research Letters, 15 (10), p. 104065 . doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fabafd5> , hdl:10013/epic.64c53dd5-db9c-4880-9ce8-7b72e3cee66e |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104065 |
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1766332711657537536 |