Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw
Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of no...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:52941 2024-09-09T20:02:55+00:00 Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw Hugelius, Gustaf Loisel, Julie Chadburn, Sarah Jackson, Robert B. Jones, Miriam MacDonald, Glen Marushchak, Maija Olefeldt, David Packalen, Maara Siewert, Matthias B. Treat, Claire Turetsky, Merritt Voigt, Carolina Yu, Zicheng 2020 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/2/Hugeliusetal2020PNAS.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.dbc7ce53-2676-4cc3-954f-26edef3e490a unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/2/Hugeliusetal2020PNAS.pdf Hugelius, G. orcid:0000-0002-8096-1594 , Loisel, J. , Chadburn, S. , Jackson, R. B. , Jones, M. , MacDonald, G. , Marushchak, M. , Olefeldt, D. , Packalen, M. , Siewert, M. B. , Treat, C. orcid:0000-0002-1225-8178 , Turetsky, M. , Voigt, C. orcid:0000-0001-8589-1428 and Yu, Z. (2020) Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (34), pp. 20438-20446 . doi:10.1073/pnas.1916387117 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117> , hdl:10013/epic.dbc7ce53-2676-4cc3-954f-26edef3e490a info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(34), pp. 20438-20446, ISSN: 0027-8424 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117 2024-06-24T04:26:11Z Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 34 20438 20446 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hugelius, Gustaf Loisel, Julie Chadburn, Sarah Jackson, Robert B. Jones, Miriam MacDonald, Glen Marushchak, Maija Olefeldt, David Packalen, Maara Siewert, Matthias B. Treat, Claire Turetsky, Merritt Voigt, Carolina Yu, Zicheng |
spellingShingle |
Hugelius, Gustaf Loisel, Julie Chadburn, Sarah Jackson, Robert B. Jones, Miriam MacDonald, Glen Marushchak, Maija Olefeldt, David Packalen, Maara Siewert, Matthias B. Treat, Claire Turetsky, Merritt Voigt, Carolina Yu, Zicheng Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
author_facet |
Hugelius, Gustaf Loisel, Julie Chadburn, Sarah Jackson, Robert B. Jones, Miriam MacDonald, Glen Marushchak, Maija Olefeldt, David Packalen, Maara Siewert, Matthias B. Treat, Claire Turetsky, Merritt Voigt, Carolina Yu, Zicheng |
author_sort |
Hugelius, Gustaf |
title |
Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
title_short |
Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
title_full |
Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
title_fullStr |
Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
title_sort |
large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/2/Hugeliusetal2020PNAS.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.dbc7ce53-2676-4cc3-954f-26edef3e490a |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
EPIC3Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(34), pp. 20438-20446, ISSN: 0027-8424 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/52941/2/Hugeliusetal2020PNAS.pdf Hugelius, G. orcid:0000-0002-8096-1594 , Loisel, J. , Chadburn, S. , Jackson, R. B. , Jones, M. , MacDonald, G. , Marushchak, M. , Olefeldt, D. , Packalen, M. , Siewert, M. B. , Treat, C. orcid:0000-0002-1225-8178 , Turetsky, M. , Voigt, C. orcid:0000-0001-8589-1428 and Yu, Z. (2020) Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (34), pp. 20438-20446 . doi:10.1073/pnas.1916387117 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117> , hdl:10013/epic.dbc7ce53-2676-4cc3-954f-26edef3e490a |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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117 |
container_issue |
34 |
container_start_page |
20438 |
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20446 |
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1809934860003835904 |