Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate
The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change t...
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/51870/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.d4767b7c-43b7-4dda-a073-801b83847420 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:51870 2024-09-15T18:02:22+00:00 Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate Nitzbon, Jan Westermann, Sebastian Langer, Moritz Martin, Léo C. P. Strauss, Jens Laboor, Sebastian Boike, Julia 2020 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/51870/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.d4767b7c-43b7-4dda-a073-801b83847420 unknown Natureresearch Nitzbon, J. orcid:0000-0001-7205-6298 , Westermann, S. , Langer, M. orcid:0000-0002-2704-3655 , Martin, L. C. P. , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Laboor, S. and Boike, J. orcid:0000-0002-5875-2112 (2020) Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate , Nature Communications, 11 (1) . doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8> , hdl:10013/epic.d4767b7c-43b7-4dda-a073-801b83847420 EPIC3Nature Communications, Natureresearch, 11(1), ISSN: 2041-1723 Article isiRev 2020 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 2024-06-24T04:24:41Z The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst Siberia Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
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The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nitzbon, Jan Westermann, Sebastian Langer, Moritz Martin, Léo C. P. Strauss, Jens Laboor, Sebastian Boike, Julia |
spellingShingle |
Nitzbon, Jan Westermann, Sebastian Langer, Moritz Martin, Léo C. P. Strauss, Jens Laboor, Sebastian Boike, Julia Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
author_facet |
Nitzbon, Jan Westermann, Sebastian Langer, Moritz Martin, Léo C. P. Strauss, Jens Laboor, Sebastian Boike, Julia |
author_sort |
Nitzbon, Jan |
title |
Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
title_short |
Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
title_full |
Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate |
title_sort |
fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast siberia to a warming climate |
publisher |
Natureresearch |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/51870/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.d4767b7c-43b7-4dda-a073-801b83847420 |
genre |
Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst Siberia |
genre_facet |
Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst Siberia |
op_source |
EPIC3Nature Communications, Natureresearch, 11(1), ISSN: 2041-1723 |
op_relation |
Nitzbon, J. orcid:0000-0001-7205-6298 , Westermann, S. , Langer, M. orcid:0000-0002-2704-3655 , Martin, L. C. P. , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Laboor, S. and Boike, J. orcid:0000-0002-5875-2112 (2020) Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate , Nature Communications, 11 (1) . doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8> , hdl:10013/epic.d4767b7c-43b7-4dda-a073-801b83847420 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810439822990376960 |