High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change
Ground ice dynamics bear crucial importance in the hydrologic and ecologic development of permafrost landscapes, but also create characteristic landforms. So far, spatial distributions and sensitivities of these landforms under changing climates have not been assessed at a circumpolar scale. We inte...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:50805 2024-09-15T18:11:28+00:00 High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Antero Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M. Lilleoren, Karianne S. Hjort, Jan 2019-12-10 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/50805/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.557c2951-fa09-4cff-a099-bfd6cd0cdfa6 unknown AGU Karjalainen, O. , Luoto, M. , Aalto, J. A. , Etzelmüller, B. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Jones, B. M. orcid:0000-0002-1517-4711 , Lilleoren, K. S. and Hjort, J. (2019) High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change , AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA, 9 December 2019 - 13 December 2019 . hdl:10013/epic.557c2951-fa09-4cff-a099-bfd6cd0cdfa6 EPIC3AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA, 2019-12-09-2019-12-13San Francisco, USA, AGU Conference notRev 2019 ftawi 2024-06-24T04:23:24Z Ground ice dynamics bear crucial importance in the hydrologic and ecologic development of permafrost landscapes, but also create characteristic landforms. So far, spatial distributions and sensitivities of these landforms under changing climates have not been assessed at a circumpolar scale. We integrated pingo (n = 9,709), ice-wedge polygon (n = 861) and rock glacier (n = 4,035) observations and geospatial data on environmental conditions into a statistical modelling framework to produce high-resolution (~1km2) distribution maps of permafrost landform occurrence across the Northern Hemisphere in current and future climates. We found that on average more than one-fifth of the potential environmental spaces might be lost by mid-century under a moderate human-induced greenhouse emission forcing (representative concentration pathway, RCP4.5). Thereon, environmental spaces continue to shrink to less than 50% of the current coverage by 2061–2080, given a ‘business-as-usual’ (RPC8.5) climate-forcing scenario. Forecasted losses of suitable regions for pingos and ice-wedge polygons were attributed to increases in precipitation and thawing-season air temperatures. Rock glaciers were dominantly air temperature-driven. Our results are congruent with the site- and regional-scale observations of rapid geomorphic responses to ongoing climate change, and for the first time demonstrate large regional shifts in potential landform distributions at a circumpolar scale. These findings suggest that extensive regions are undergoing drastic changes in Earth surface processes, e.g. ground ice thaw, which are prone to cause thermokarst and threats to infrastructure development. Despite sophisticated modelling frameworks and increased data availability, circumpolar-scale geomorphological distribution modelling is still highly dependent on the quality of used geospatial data and the completeness of sampling, especially in heterogeneous environments. Based on the magnitude of climatic sensitivities of permafrost landforms, we suggest that ... Conference Object Ice permafrost Thermokarst wedge* Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Ground ice dynamics bear crucial importance in the hydrologic and ecologic development of permafrost landscapes, but also create characteristic landforms. So far, spatial distributions and sensitivities of these landforms under changing climates have not been assessed at a circumpolar scale. We integrated pingo (n = 9,709), ice-wedge polygon (n = 861) and rock glacier (n = 4,035) observations and geospatial data on environmental conditions into a statistical modelling framework to produce high-resolution (~1km2) distribution maps of permafrost landform occurrence across the Northern Hemisphere in current and future climates. We found that on average more than one-fifth of the potential environmental spaces might be lost by mid-century under a moderate human-induced greenhouse emission forcing (representative concentration pathway, RCP4.5). Thereon, environmental spaces continue to shrink to less than 50% of the current coverage by 2061–2080, given a ‘business-as-usual’ (RPC8.5) climate-forcing scenario. Forecasted losses of suitable regions for pingos and ice-wedge polygons were attributed to increases in precipitation and thawing-season air temperatures. Rock glaciers were dominantly air temperature-driven. Our results are congruent with the site- and regional-scale observations of rapid geomorphic responses to ongoing climate change, and for the first time demonstrate large regional shifts in potential landform distributions at a circumpolar scale. These findings suggest that extensive regions are undergoing drastic changes in Earth surface processes, e.g. ground ice thaw, which are prone to cause thermokarst and threats to infrastructure development. Despite sophisticated modelling frameworks and increased data availability, circumpolar-scale geomorphological distribution modelling is still highly dependent on the quality of used geospatial data and the completeness of sampling, especially in heterogeneous environments. Based on the magnitude of climatic sensitivities of permafrost landforms, we suggest that ... |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Antero Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M. Lilleoren, Karianne S. Hjort, Jan |
spellingShingle |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Antero Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M. Lilleoren, Karianne S. Hjort, Jan High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
author_facet |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Antero Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M. Lilleoren, Karianne S. Hjort, Jan |
author_sort |
Karjalainen, Olli |
title |
High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
title_short |
High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
title_full |
High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change |
title_sort |
high potential for loss of circumpolar pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers due to climate change |
publisher |
AGU |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/50805/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.557c2951-fa09-4cff-a099-bfd6cd0cdfa6 |
genre |
Ice permafrost Thermokarst wedge* |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost Thermokarst wedge* |
op_source |
EPIC3AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA, 2019-12-09-2019-12-13San Francisco, USA, AGU |
op_relation |
Karjalainen, O. , Luoto, M. , Aalto, J. A. , Etzelmüller, B. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Jones, B. M. orcid:0000-0002-1517-4711 , Lilleoren, K. S. and Hjort, J. (2019) High Potential for Loss of Circumpolar Pingos, Ice-wedge Polygons and Rock Glaciers due to Climate Change , AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA, 9 December 2019 - 13 December 2019 . hdl:10013/epic.557c2951-fa09-4cff-a099-bfd6cd0cdfa6 |
_version_ |
1810449070186037248 |