Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes
Urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems arises from increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and literature were c...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:49891 2024-09-15T17:47:09+00:00 Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes Chaabani, Safa López-González, Pablo J. Casado-Amezúa, Pilar Pehlke, Hendrik Weber, Lukas Martínez-Baraldés, Irene Jerosch, Kerstin 2019-10-10 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49891/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.7ff9be52-7ff3-43dc-ba00-d669fa28177f unknown Chaabani, S. , López-González, P. J. , Casado-Amezúa, P. , Pehlke, H. orcid:0000-0003-1916-7831 , Weber, L. , Martínez-Baraldés, I. and Jerosch, K. orcid:0000-0003-0728-2154 (2019) Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes , Marine Ecology Progress Series, 628 , pp. 73-93 . doi:10.3354/meps13085 <https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13085> , hdl:10013/epic.7ff9be52-7ff3-43dc-ba00-d669fa28177f EPIC3Marine Ecology Progress Series, 628, pp. 73-93 Article isiRev 2019 ftawi https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13085 2024-06-24T04:22:11Z Urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems arises from increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and literature were compiled and merged with model-generated pseudo-absence data and 14 environmental variables. The best results of nine species distribution models (SDM) were combined to an ensemble habitat suitability model for CWCs in the northern Southern Ocean (Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula) by means of the open source R package ‘biomod2’. Furthermore, two future scenarios of increasing bottom sea temperature were used to investigate the spatial response of scleractinians to temperature change. The resulting (current scenario) potential ecological niches were evaluated with good to excellent statistical measures. The results predict that present areas of highest probability of CWC occurrence are around the Antarctic Peninsula, South Orkney Islands and Queen Maud Land with preference to geomorphic features such as seamounts. The distribution of CWC habitats is mainly driven by distance to coast and ice shelves, bathymetry, benthic calcium carbonate, as well as temperature. Under warming conditions, CWCs are predicted to expand their distribution range by 6 and 10% in 2037 and 2150, respectively, compared to present distribution. The future models using increased bottom temperature revealed a stable CWC distribution for most parts of the study area. However, habitat shifts are expected to the Filchner Trough region, the adjacent continental shelves, as well as to the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Queen Maud Land South Orkney Islands Southern Ocean Weddell Sea Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Marine Ecology Progress Series 628 73 93 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems arises from increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and literature were compiled and merged with model-generated pseudo-absence data and 14 environmental variables. The best results of nine species distribution models (SDM) were combined to an ensemble habitat suitability model for CWCs in the northern Southern Ocean (Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula) by means of the open source R package ‘biomod2’. Furthermore, two future scenarios of increasing bottom sea temperature were used to investigate the spatial response of scleractinians to temperature change. The resulting (current scenario) potential ecological niches were evaluated with good to excellent statistical measures. The results predict that present areas of highest probability of CWC occurrence are around the Antarctic Peninsula, South Orkney Islands and Queen Maud Land with preference to geomorphic features such as seamounts. The distribution of CWC habitats is mainly driven by distance to coast and ice shelves, bathymetry, benthic calcium carbonate, as well as temperature. Under warming conditions, CWCs are predicted to expand their distribution range by 6 and 10% in 2037 and 2150, respectively, compared to present distribution. The future models using increased bottom temperature revealed a stable CWC distribution for most parts of the study area. However, habitat shifts are expected to the Filchner Trough region, the adjacent continental shelves, as well as to the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chaabani, Safa López-González, Pablo J. Casado-Amezúa, Pilar Pehlke, Hendrik Weber, Lukas Martínez-Baraldés, Irene Jerosch, Kerstin |
spellingShingle |
Chaabani, Safa López-González, Pablo J. Casado-Amezúa, Pilar Pehlke, Hendrik Weber, Lukas Martínez-Baraldés, Irene Jerosch, Kerstin Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
author_facet |
Chaabani, Safa López-González, Pablo J. Casado-Amezúa, Pilar Pehlke, Hendrik Weber, Lukas Martínez-Baraldés, Irene Jerosch, Kerstin |
author_sort |
Chaabani, Safa |
title |
Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
title_short |
Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
title_full |
Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
title_fullStr |
Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
title_sort |
ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the southern ocean (n antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49891/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.7ff9be52-7ff3-43dc-ba00-d669fa28177f |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Queen Maud Land South Orkney Islands Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Queen Maud Land South Orkney Islands Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
op_source |
EPIC3Marine Ecology Progress Series, 628, pp. 73-93 |
op_relation |
Chaabani, S. , López-González, P. J. , Casado-Amezúa, P. , Pehlke, H. orcid:0000-0003-1916-7831 , Weber, L. , Martínez-Baraldés, I. and Jerosch, K. orcid:0000-0003-0728-2154 (2019) Ecological niche modelling of cold-water corals in the Southern Ocean (N Antarctic), present distribution and future projections due to temperature changes , Marine Ecology Progress Series, 628 , pp. 73-93 . doi:10.3354/meps13085 <https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13085> , hdl:10013/epic.7ff9be52-7ff3-43dc-ba00-d669fa28177f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13085 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
628 |
container_start_page |
73 |
op_container_end_page |
93 |
_version_ |
1810495861326610432 |