September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach
Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmos...
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2019
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/1/Ionita-ESD2019.pdf https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b00f0923-9e6f-40af-8a5c-30edc16804ec https://hdl.handle.net/ |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:49304 2023-05-15T14:27:44+02:00 September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach Ionita, Monica Grosfeld, Klaus Scholz, Patrick Treffeisen, Renate Lohmann, Gerrit 2019-03-21 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/1/Ionita-ESD2019.pdf https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b00f0923-9e6f-40af-8a5c-30edc16804ec https://hdl.handle.net/ unknown Copernicus Publications https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/1/Ionita-ESD2019.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Ionita, M. orcid:0000-0001-8240-4380 , Grosfeld, K. orcid:0000-0001-5936-179X , Scholz, P. orcid:0000-0003-2692-7624 , Treffeisen, R. and Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X (2019) September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach , Earth System Dynamics, 10 (1), pp. 189-203 . doi:10.5194/esd-10-189-2019 <https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019> , hdl:10013/epic.b00f0923-9e6f-40af-8a5c-30edc16804ec EPIC3Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus Publications, 10(1), pp. 189-203, ISSN: 2190-4979 Article isiRev 2019 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019 2021-12-24T15:44:36Z Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months’ oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled climate models with a focus on sea ice formation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Earth System Dynamics 10 1 189 203 |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months’ oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled climate models with a focus on sea ice formation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ionita, Monica Grosfeld, Klaus Scholz, Patrick Treffeisen, Renate Lohmann, Gerrit |
spellingShingle |
Ionita, Monica Grosfeld, Klaus Scholz, Patrick Treffeisen, Renate Lohmann, Gerrit September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
author_facet |
Ionita, Monica Grosfeld, Klaus Scholz, Patrick Treffeisen, Renate Lohmann, Gerrit |
author_sort |
Ionita, Monica |
title |
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
title_short |
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
title_full |
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
title_fullStr |
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
title_sort |
september arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/1/Ionita-ESD2019.pdf https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b00f0923-9e6f-40af-8a5c-30edc16804ec https://hdl.handle.net/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus Publications, 10(1), pp. 189-203, ISSN: 2190-4979 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49304/1/Ionita-ESD2019.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Ionita, M. orcid:0000-0001-8240-4380 , Grosfeld, K. orcid:0000-0001-5936-179X , Scholz, P. orcid:0000-0003-2692-7624 , Treffeisen, R. and Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X (2019) September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction — a skillful new statistical approach , Earth System Dynamics, 10 (1), pp. 189-203 . doi:10.5194/esd-10-189-2019 <https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019> , hdl:10013/epic.b00f0923-9e6f-40af-8a5c-30edc16804ec |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
189 |
op_container_end_page |
203 |
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1766301600920371200 |