The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability

• Main Authors: Chevallier, Matthieu, Massonnet, François, Goessling, Helge, Guemas, Virginie, Jung, Thomas
• Other Authors: Vitart, Frédéric, Robertson, Andrew W.
• Format: Book Part
• Language: unknown
• Published: Elsevier 2019
• Subjects: Antarc*; Antarctic; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48530/; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128117149000103; https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.1defffc1-47ea-4c23-aed2-618f7a1c84aa

The chapter presents a review of sea ice properties in relation to sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions in the Arctic and the Antarctic. After a concise presentation of the main processes governing sea ice physics, the spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and variability of sea ice in both poles are described. Using a variety of observations and model reconstructions of the four recent decades, the memory of the main descriptors of the sea ice state is quantified. In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, persistence of the sea ice areal properties emerges as the primarily source of sea ice sub-seasonal predictability, with strong dependence on season. Further memory can be obtained from reemergence mechanisms, implying processes internal to sea ice and coupling with the atmosphere and the ocean. In addition, lessons from modeling studies are addressed in terms of potential sea ice predictability and actual predictive skill. Finally, the chapter provides an overview of our understanding of the possible role of sea ice as a source of S2S atmospheric predictability, both in the polar regions and beyond.