Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales
With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/1/Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.fc5c8c4d-74dd-463a-869a-6b82d7dd5f75 https://hdl.handle.net/ |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:48163 2023-05-15T14:27:07+02:00 Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas 2018-09-28 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/1/Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.fc5c8c4d-74dd-463a-869a-6b82d7dd5f75 https://hdl.handle.net/ unknown Wiley https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/1/Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Zampieri, L. orcid:0000-0003-1703-4162 , Goessling, H. F. orcid:0000-0001-9018-1383 and Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 (2018) Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales , Geophysical Research Letters . doi:10.1029/2018GL079394 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394> , hdl:10013/epic.fc5c8c4d-74dd-463a-869a-6b82d7dd5f75 EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, ISSN: 0094-8276 Article isiRev 2018 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394 2021-12-24T15:44:11Z With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting the location of the Arctic sea ice edge on these time scales. We find large differences in skill between the systems, with some showing a lack of predictive skill even at short weather time scales and the best producing skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead. This highlights that the area of subseasonal prediction in the Arctic is in an early stage but also that the prospects are bright, especially for late summer forecasts. To fully exploit this potential, it is argued that it will be imperative to reduce systematic model errors and develop advanced data assimilation capacity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 45 18 9731 9738 |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting the location of the Arctic sea ice edge on these time scales. We find large differences in skill between the systems, with some showing a lack of predictive skill even at short weather time scales and the best producing skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead. This highlights that the area of subseasonal prediction in the Arctic is in an early stage but also that the prospects are bright, especially for late summer forecasts. To fully exploit this potential, it is argued that it will be imperative to reduce systematic model errors and develop advanced data assimilation capacity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
author_facet |
Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas |
author_sort |
Zampieri, Lorenzo |
title |
Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_short |
Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_full |
Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_fullStr |
Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_sort |
bright prospects for arctic sea ice prediction on subseasonal time scales |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/1/Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.fc5c8c4d-74dd-463a-869a-6b82d7dd5f75 https://hdl.handle.net/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, ISSN: 0094-8276 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/48163/1/Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/ Zampieri, L. orcid:0000-0003-1703-4162 , Goessling, H. F. orcid:0000-0001-9018-1383 and Jung, T. orcid:0000-0002-2651-1293 (2018) Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales , Geophysical Research Letters . doi:10.1029/2018GL079394 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394> , hdl:10013/epic.fc5c8c4d-74dd-463a-869a-6b82d7dd5f75 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
9731 |
op_container_end_page |
9738 |
_version_ |
1766300711569588224 |