Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations
Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are us...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:47899 2024-09-15T17:51:09+00:00 Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations Sato, Kazutoshi Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Kim, Joo-Hong Makshtas, Alexander Kustov, Vasilli Maturilli, Marion Dethloff, Klaus 2018-08-14 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/47899/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.26cf2ab0-f2d6-4605-a698-45f88cefab5c unknown Sato, K. , Inoue, J. , Yamazaki, A. , Kim, J. H. , Makshtas, A. , Kustov, V. , Maturilli, M. orcid:0000-0001-6818-7383 and Dethloff, K. (2018) Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations , Scientific Reportsvolume, 8 (12104) . doi:10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4> , hdl:10013/epic.26cf2ab0-f2d6-4605-a698-45f88cefab5c EPIC3Scientific Reportsvolume, 8(12104) Article peerRev 2018 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4 2024-06-24T04:21:00Z Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Scientific Reports 8 1 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sato, Kazutoshi Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Kim, Joo-Hong Makshtas, Alexander Kustov, Vasilli Maturilli, Marion Dethloff, Klaus |
spellingShingle |
Sato, Kazutoshi Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Kim, Joo-Hong Makshtas, Alexander Kustov, Vasilli Maturilli, Marion Dethloff, Klaus Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
author_facet |
Sato, Kazutoshi Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Kim, Joo-Hong Makshtas, Alexander Kustov, Vasilli Maturilli, Marion Dethloff, Klaus |
author_sort |
Sato, Kazutoshi |
title |
Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
title_short |
Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
title_full |
Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
title_fullStr |
Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations |
title_sort |
impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra arctic boservations |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/47899/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.26cf2ab0-f2d6-4605-a698-45f88cefab5c |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
EPIC3Scientific Reportsvolume, 8(12104) |
op_relation |
Sato, K. , Inoue, J. , Yamazaki, A. , Kim, J. H. , Makshtas, A. , Kustov, V. , Maturilli, M. orcid:0000-0001-6818-7383 and Dethloff, K. (2018) Impact of predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic boservations , Scientific Reportsvolume, 8 (12104) . doi:10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4> , hdl:10013/epic.26cf2ab0-f2d6-4605-a698-45f88cefab5c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
8 |
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1 |
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1810292974290993152 |