The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change
The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is one of the most rapidly warming on earth since the last 50 yr. The WAP glaciers currently contribute one third of the melt water to global sea level rise. Climate warming is supposed to induce important changes in polar ecosystems, from microbial commu...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:47170 2023-05-15T13:45:22+02:00 The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change Jerosch, Kerstin Scharf, Frauke Deregibus, Dolores Campana, Gabriela Laura Zacher, Katharina Hass, Christian Quartino, Maria Liliana Abele, Doris 2016-04 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/47170/ http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA.18.3053J https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.d8a5160c-677d-490a-b03b-30cf6635a95c unknown Coopernicus Jerosch, K. orcid:0000-0003-0728-2154 , Scharf, F. , Deregibus, D. , Campana, G. L. , Zacher, K. orcid:0000-0001-8897-1255 , Hass, C. orcid:0000-0003-2649-6828 , Quartino, M. L. and Abele, D. orcid:0000-0002-5766-5017 (2016) The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change , EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, 17 April 2016 - 22 April 2016 . hdl:10013/epic.d8a5160c-677d-490a-b03b-30cf6635a95c info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, 2016-04-17-2016-04-22Geophysical Research Abstracts, Coopernicus Conference notRev info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2016 ftawi 2022-10-02T23:12:36Z The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is one of the most rapidly warming on earth since the last 50 yr. The WAP glaciers currently contribute one third of the melt water to global sea level rise. Climate warming is supposed to induce important changes in polar ecosystems, from microbial communities to apex predators’ levels. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove located at King George Island, the biggest island of the South Shetland Arc. They are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package ‘biomod2’ which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model (EM) used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The modeled current status of macroalgae distribution results in only 18.25% of earlier estimated areas populated by macroalgae in Potter Cove. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island Potter Cove |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is one of the most rapidly warming on earth since the last 50 yr. The WAP glaciers currently contribute one third of the melt water to global sea level rise. Climate warming is supposed to induce important changes in polar ecosystems, from microbial communities to apex predators’ levels. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove located at King George Island, the biggest island of the South Shetland Arc. They are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package ‘biomod2’ which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model (EM) used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The modeled current status of macroalgae distribution results in only 18.25% of earlier estimated areas populated by macroalgae in Potter Cove. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Jerosch, Kerstin Scharf, Frauke Deregibus, Dolores Campana, Gabriela Laura Zacher, Katharina Hass, Christian Quartino, Maria Liliana Abele, Doris |
spellingShingle |
Jerosch, Kerstin Scharf, Frauke Deregibus, Dolores Campana, Gabriela Laura Zacher, Katharina Hass, Christian Quartino, Maria Liliana Abele, Doris The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
author_facet |
Jerosch, Kerstin Scharf, Frauke Deregibus, Dolores Campana, Gabriela Laura Zacher, Katharina Hass, Christian Quartino, Maria Liliana Abele, Doris |
author_sort |
Jerosch, Kerstin |
title |
The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
title_short |
The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
title_full |
The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
title_fullStr |
The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change |
title_sort |
potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an antarctic peninsula fjord due to climate change |
publisher |
Coopernicus |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/47170/ http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA.18.3053J https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.d8a5160c-677d-490a-b03b-30cf6635a95c |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island Potter Cove |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island Potter Cove |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula King George Island |
op_source |
EPIC3EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, 2016-04-17-2016-04-22Geophysical Research Abstracts, Coopernicus |
op_relation |
Jerosch, K. orcid:0000-0003-0728-2154 , Scharf, F. , Deregibus, D. , Campana, G. L. , Zacher, K. orcid:0000-0001-8897-1255 , Hass, C. orcid:0000-0003-2649-6828 , Quartino, M. L. and Abele, D. orcid:0000-0002-5766-5017 (2016) The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change , EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, 17 April 2016 - 22 April 2016 . hdl:10013/epic.d8a5160c-677d-490a-b03b-30cf6635a95c |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766223092042956800 |