The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of a...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:42677 2023-05-15T17:55:23+02:00 The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate Schaefer, Kevin Lantuit, Hugues Romanovsky, Vladimir Schuur, Edward. A. G. Witt, Ronald 2014-08-15 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/1/Schaefer_2014_Environ_Res_Lett_9_085003.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287.d001 unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/1/Schaefer_2014_Environ_Res_Lett_9_085003.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287.d001 Schaefer, K. , Lantuit, H. orcid:0000-0003-1497-6760 , Romanovsky, V. , Schuur, E. A. G. and Witt, R. (2014) The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate , Environmental Research Letters . doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F9%2F8%2F085003> , hdl:10013/epic.49287 EPIC3Environmental Research Letters Article peerRev 2014 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003 2021-12-24T15:42:14Z Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Environmental Research Letters 9 8 085003 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
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Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schaefer, Kevin Lantuit, Hugues Romanovsky, Vladimir Schuur, Edward. A. G. Witt, Ronald |
spellingShingle |
Schaefer, Kevin Lantuit, Hugues Romanovsky, Vladimir Schuur, Edward. A. G. Witt, Ronald The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
author_facet |
Schaefer, Kevin Lantuit, Hugues Romanovsky, Vladimir Schuur, Edward. A. G. Witt, Ronald |
author_sort |
Schaefer, Kevin |
title |
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
title_short |
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
title_full |
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
title_fullStr |
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
title_sort |
impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/1/Schaefer_2014_Environ_Res_Lett_9_085003.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287.d001 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
EPIC3Environmental Research Letters |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42677/1/Schaefer_2014_Environ_Res_Lett_9_085003.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49287.d001 Schaefer, K. , Lantuit, H. orcid:0000-0003-1497-6760 , Romanovsky, V. , Schuur, E. A. G. and Witt, R. (2014) The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate , Environmental Research Letters . doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F9%2F8%2F085003> , hdl:10013/epic.49287 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
085003 |
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1766163321422086144 |