Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations
The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input th...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:42396 2024-09-15T17:51:37+00:00 Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations Kauker, Frank Kaminski, T. Ricker, Robert Toudal-Pedersen, L. Dybkjaer, G. Melsheimer, C. Eastwood, S. Sumata, Hiroshi Karcher, Michael Gerdes, Rüdiger 2015 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42396/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49087 unknown Kauker, F. orcid:0000-0002-7976-3005 , Kaminski, T. , Ricker, R. orcid:0000-0001-6928-7757 , Toudal-Pedersen, L. , Dybkjaer, G. , Melsheimer, C. , Eastwood, S. , Sumata, H. orcid:0000-0002-2832-2875 , Karcher, M. orcid:0000-0002-9587-811X and Gerdes, R. (2015) Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations , The Cryosphere Discussions, 9 (5), pp. 5521-5554 . doi:10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015> , hdl:10013/epic.49087 EPIC3The Cryosphere Discussions, 9(5), pp. 5521-5554, ISSN: 1994-0440 Article isiRev 2015 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 2024-06-24T04:15:36Z The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Beaufort Sea North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kauker, Frank Kaminski, T. Ricker, Robert Toudal-Pedersen, L. Dybkjaer, G. Melsheimer, C. Eastwood, S. Sumata, Hiroshi Karcher, Michael Gerdes, Rüdiger |
spellingShingle |
Kauker, Frank Kaminski, T. Ricker, Robert Toudal-Pedersen, L. Dybkjaer, G. Melsheimer, C. Eastwood, S. Sumata, Hiroshi Karcher, Michael Gerdes, Rüdiger Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
author_facet |
Kauker, Frank Kaminski, T. Ricker, Robert Toudal-Pedersen, L. Dybkjaer, G. Melsheimer, C. Eastwood, S. Sumata, Hiroshi Karcher, Michael Gerdes, Rüdiger |
author_sort |
Kauker, Frank |
title |
Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
title_short |
Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
title_full |
Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
title_sort |
seasonal sea ice predictions for the arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42396/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49087 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Beaufort Sea North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Beaufort Sea North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
op_source |
EPIC3The Cryosphere Discussions, 9(5), pp. 5521-5554, ISSN: 1994-0440 |
op_relation |
Kauker, F. orcid:0000-0002-7976-3005 , Kaminski, T. , Ricker, R. orcid:0000-0001-6928-7757 , Toudal-Pedersen, L. , Dybkjaer, G. , Melsheimer, C. , Eastwood, S. , Sumata, H. orcid:0000-0002-2832-2875 , Karcher, M. orcid:0000-0002-9587-811X and Gerdes, R. (2015) Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations , The Cryosphere Discussions, 9 (5), pp. 5521-5554 . doi:10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015> , hdl:10013/epic.49087 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5521-2015 |
_version_ |
1810293555797688320 |