Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

• Published in: Nature Climate Change
• Main Authors: Overland, James, Dethloff, Klaus, Francis, Jennifer, Hall, Richard, Hanna, Edward, Kim, Seong-Joong, Screen, James, Shepherd, Theodore G., Vihma, Timo
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/41790/; https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/41790/1/OVERLAND_nclimate3121.pdf; https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49255; https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.49255.d001

Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern midlatitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.