Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century
Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:41529 2024-09-15T17:55:21+00:00 Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans-Otto 2016-07-04 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/41529/ https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.48419 unknown Butzin, M. orcid:0000-0002-9275-7304 and Pörtner, H. O. orcid:0000-0001-6535-6575 (2016) Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century , Global Change Biology, 22 (12), pp. 4162-4168 . doi:10.1111/gcb.13375 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375> , hdl:10013/epic.48419 EPIC3Global Change Biology, 22(12), pp. 4162-4168, ISSN: 13541013 Article isiRev 2016 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 2024-06-24T04:15:36Z Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature-dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature- and oxygen-dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Global Change Biology 22 12 4162 4168 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature-dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature- and oxygen-dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
spellingShingle |
Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans-Otto Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
author_facet |
Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
author_sort |
Butzin, Martin |
title |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
thermal growth potential of atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/41529/ https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.48419 |
genre |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua |
op_source |
EPIC3Global Change Biology, 22(12), pp. 4162-4168, ISSN: 13541013 |
op_relation |
Butzin, M. orcid:0000-0002-9275-7304 and Pörtner, H. O. orcid:0000-0001-6535-6575 (2016) Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century , Global Change Biology, 22 (12), pp. 4162-4168 . doi:10.1111/gcb.13375 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375> , hdl:10013/epic.48419 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4162 |
op_container_end_page |
4168 |
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1810431651732258816 |