Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route
During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could m...
Published in: | Scientific Reports |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/1/srep16868.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634.d001 |
id |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:39471 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:39471 2023-05-15T14:27:24+02:00 Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, A. Ono, J. Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, P. Yamanouchi, T. 2015 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/1/srep16868.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634.d001 unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/1/srep16868.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634.d001 Inoue, J. , Yamazaki, A. , Ono, J. , Dethloff, K. , Maturilli, M. orcid:0000-0001-6818-7383 , Neuber, R. orcid:0000-0001-7382-7832 , Edwards, P. and Yamanouchi, T. (2015) Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route , Nature Scientific Reports, 5 (16868) . doi:10.1038/srep16868 <https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868> , hdl:10013/epic.46634 EPIC3Nature Scientific Reports, 5(16868) Article isiRev 2015 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 2021-12-24T15:41:02Z During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Arctic Arctic Ocean Scientific Reports 5 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, A. Ono, J. Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, P. Yamanouchi, T. |
spellingShingle |
Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, A. Ono, J. Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, P. Yamanouchi, T. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
author_facet |
Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, A. Ono, J. Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, P. Yamanouchi, T. |
author_sort |
Inoue, Jun |
title |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_short |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_full |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_fullStr |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_full_unstemmed |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_sort |
additional arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the northern sea route |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/1/srep16868.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634.d001 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Nature Scientific Reports, 5(16868) |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/39471/1/srep16868.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46634.d001 Inoue, J. , Yamazaki, A. , Ono, J. , Dethloff, K. , Maturilli, M. orcid:0000-0001-6818-7383 , Neuber, R. orcid:0000-0001-7382-7832 , Edwards, P. and Yamanouchi, T. (2015) Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route , Nature Scientific Reports, 5 (16868) . doi:10.1038/srep16868 <https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868> , hdl:10013/epic.46634 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766301118293344256 |