A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify t...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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ROYAL SOC
2015
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38777/ http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46075 |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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unknown |
description |
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under twowarming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 PgC°C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koven, Charles D. Schuur, Edward. A. G. Schädel, Christina Bohn, Theodore Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Ciais, Philippe Grosse, Guido Harden, Jennifer W. Hayes, Daniel J. Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Krinner, Gerhard Kuhry, Peter Lawrence, David M. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergei S. McGuire, A. David Natali, Sue M. Nicolsky, Dmitry J. Olefeldt, David Peng, Shushi Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schaefer, Kevin M. Strauss, Jens Treat, Claire C. Turetsky, Merritt |
spellingShingle |
Koven, Charles D. Schuur, Edward. A. G. Schädel, Christina Bohn, Theodore Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Ciais, Philippe Grosse, Guido Harden, Jennifer W. Hayes, Daniel J. Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Krinner, Gerhard Kuhry, Peter Lawrence, David M. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergei S. McGuire, A. David Natali, Sue M. Nicolsky, Dmitry J. Olefeldt, David Peng, Shushi Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schaefer, Kevin M. Strauss, Jens Treat, Claire C. Turetsky, Merritt A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
author_facet |
Koven, Charles D. Schuur, Edward. A. G. Schädel, Christina Bohn, Theodore Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Ciais, Philippe Grosse, Guido Harden, Jennifer W. Hayes, Daniel J. Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Krinner, Gerhard Kuhry, Peter Lawrence, David M. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergei S. McGuire, A. David Natali, Sue M. Nicolsky, Dmitry J. Olefeldt, David Peng, Shushi Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schaefer, Kevin M. Strauss, Jens Treat, Claire C. Turetsky, Merritt |
author_sort |
Koven, Charles D. |
title |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_short |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_full |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_fullStr |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_sort |
simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
publisher |
ROYAL SOC |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38777/ http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46075 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
EPIC3Proceedings of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, ROYAL SOC, 373, ISSN: 1364-5021 |
op_relation |
Koven, C. D. , Schuur, E. A. G. , Schädel, C. , Bohn, T. , Burke, E. , Chen, G. , Chen, X. , Ciais, P. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Harden, J. W. , Hayes, D. J. , Hugelius, G. , Jafarov, E. E. , Krinner, G. , Kuhry, P. , Lawrence, D. M. , MacDougall, A. H. , Marchenko, S. S. , McGuire, A. D. , Natali, S. M. , Nicolsky, D. J. , Olefeldt, D. , Peng, S. , Romanovsky, V. E. , Schaefer, K. M. , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Treat, C. C. and Turetsky, M. (2015) A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback , Proceedings of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373 . doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423> , hdl:10013/epic.46075 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
373 |
container_issue |
2054 |
container_start_page |
20140423 |
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1810471163425456128 |
spelling |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:38777 2024-09-15T18:29:44+00:00 A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback Koven, Charles D. Schuur, Edward. A. G. Schädel, Christina Bohn, Theodore Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Ciais, Philippe Grosse, Guido Harden, Jennifer W. Hayes, Daniel J. Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Krinner, Gerhard Kuhry, Peter Lawrence, David M. MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergei S. McGuire, A. David Natali, Sue M. Nicolsky, Dmitry J. Olefeldt, David Peng, Shushi Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Schaefer, Kevin M. Strauss, Jens Treat, Claire C. Turetsky, Merritt 2015-09-05 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38777/ http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.46075 unknown ROYAL SOC Koven, C. D. , Schuur, E. A. G. , Schädel, C. , Bohn, T. , Burke, E. , Chen, G. , Chen, X. , Ciais, P. , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Harden, J. W. , Hayes, D. J. , Hugelius, G. , Jafarov, E. E. , Krinner, G. , Kuhry, P. , Lawrence, D. M. , MacDougall, A. H. , Marchenko, S. S. , McGuire, A. D. , Natali, S. M. , Nicolsky, D. J. , Olefeldt, D. , Peng, S. , Romanovsky, V. E. , Schaefer, K. M. , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Treat, C. C. and Turetsky, M. (2015) A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback , Proceedings of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373 . doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423> , hdl:10013/epic.46075 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Proceedings of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, ROYAL SOC, 373, ISSN: 1364-5021 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 2024-06-24T04:12:21Z We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under twowarming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 PgC°C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373 2054 20140423 |