Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity
High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a si...
Published in: | Biogeosciences |
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2015
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/1/Schneider_von_Deimling_2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687.d001 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:38257 2024-09-15T18:29:25+00:00 Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Grosse, Guido Strauss, Jens Schirrmeister, Lutz Morgenstern, Anne Schaphoff, Sibyll Meinshausen, Malte Boike, Julia 2015 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/1/Schneider_von_Deimling_2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687.d001 unknown https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/1/Schneider_von_Deimling_2015.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687.d001 Schneider von Deimling, T. orcid:0000-0002-4140-0495 , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Schirrmeister, L. orcid:0000-0001-9455-0596 , Morgenstern, A. orcid:0000-0002-6466-7571 , Schaphoff, S. , Meinshausen, M. and Boike, J. orcid:0000-0002-5875-2112 (2015) Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity , Biogeosciences, 12 (11), pp. 3469-3488 . doi:10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015> , hdl:10013/epic.45687 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess EPIC3Biogeosciences, 12(11), pp. 3469-3488, ISSN: 1726-4189 Article isiRev info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftawi https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 2024-06-24T04:12:21Z High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under newly formed thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrams of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42 to 141 Pg-C and 157 to 313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost, not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under pre-industrial climate. Our simulated CH4 fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest CH4 emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 per year around the middle of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is taken into account. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Thermokarst Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Biogeosciences 12 11 3469 3488 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under newly formed thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrams of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42 to 141 Pg-C and 157 to 313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost, not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under pre-industrial climate. Our simulated CH4 fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest CH4 emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 per year around the middle of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is taken into account. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Grosse, Guido Strauss, Jens Schirrmeister, Lutz Morgenstern, Anne Schaphoff, Sibyll Meinshausen, Malte Boike, Julia |
spellingShingle |
Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Grosse, Guido Strauss, Jens Schirrmeister, Lutz Morgenstern, Anne Schaphoff, Sibyll Meinshausen, Malte Boike, Julia Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
author_facet |
Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Grosse, Guido Strauss, Jens Schirrmeister, Lutz Morgenstern, Anne Schaphoff, Sibyll Meinshausen, Malte Boike, Julia |
author_sort |
Schneider von Deimling, Thomas |
title |
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
title_short |
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
title_full |
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
title_fullStr |
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
title_sort |
observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/1/Schneider_von_Deimling_2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687.d001 |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst |
op_source |
EPIC3Biogeosciences, 12(11), pp. 3469-3488, ISSN: 1726-4189 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/38257/1/Schneider_von_Deimling_2015.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.45687.d001 Schneider von Deimling, T. orcid:0000-0002-4140-0495 , Grosse, G. orcid:0000-0001-5895-2141 , Strauss, J. orcid:0000-0003-4678-4982 , Schirrmeister, L. orcid:0000-0001-9455-0596 , Morgenstern, A. orcid:0000-0002-6466-7571 , Schaphoff, S. , Meinshausen, M. and Boike, J. orcid:0000-0002-5875-2112 (2015) Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity , Biogeosciences, 12 (11), pp. 3469-3488 . doi:10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015> , hdl:10013/epic.45687 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 |
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Biogeosciences |
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12 |
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11 |
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3469 |
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3488 |
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1810470812259450880 |