Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics
A data assimilation (DA) system has been developed for the operational circulation model of the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in order to improve the forecast of hydrographic characteristics in the North and Baltic Seas. It is based on the local Singular Evolutive Interpolate...
Published in: | Journal of Marine Systems |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/1/Losa_et_al_2012b_JMS_rev2.pdf http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796313001498 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927.d001 |
id |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:33442 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:33442 2024-09-09T20:07:46+00:00 Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics Loza, Svetlana Danilov, Sergey Schröter, Jens Janjic Pfander, Tijana Nerger, Lars Janssen, Frank 2014 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/1/Losa_et_al_2012b_JMS_rev2.pdf http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796313001498 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927.d001 unknown ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/1/Losa_et_al_2012b_JMS_rev2.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927.d001 Loza, S. orcid:0000-0003-2153-1954 , Danilov, S. orcid:0000-0001-8098-182X , Schröter, J. orcid:0000-0002-9240-5798 , Janjic Pfander, T. , Nerger, L. orcid:0000-0002-1908-1010 and Janssen, F. (2014) Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics , Journal of Marine Systems, 129 , pp. 259-270 . doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011> , hdl:10013/epic.41927 EPIC3Journal of Marine Systems, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 129, pp. 259-270, ISSN: 0924-7963 Article isiRev 2014 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011 2024-06-24T04:07:26Z A data assimilation (DA) system has been developed for the operational circulation model of the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in order to improve the forecast of hydrographic characteristics in the North and Baltic Seas. It is based on the local Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter algorithm and assimilation of the NOAA AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST). The DA system allows one to improve the agreement of the SST forecast with the satellite observations by 27% on average over the period of October 2007–September 2008. However, a sensitivity analysis of the forecasting system performance shows a significant impact of initial model error statistics on ice fields and bottom temperature. A reinitialisation of model error covariances in accordance with seasonality of the model error statistics was required in order to maintain the predictive skill with respect to these variables. The success of the DA system is quantified by the comparison with independent data from MARNET stations as well as sea ice concentration measurements. In addition, the Maximum Entropy approach is used to assess the system performance and the prior and posterior model error statistics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Journal of Marine Systems 129 259 270 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
op_collection_id |
ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
A data assimilation (DA) system has been developed for the operational circulation model of the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in order to improve the forecast of hydrographic characteristics in the North and Baltic Seas. It is based on the local Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter algorithm and assimilation of the NOAA AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST). The DA system allows one to improve the agreement of the SST forecast with the satellite observations by 27% on average over the period of October 2007–September 2008. However, a sensitivity analysis of the forecasting system performance shows a significant impact of initial model error statistics on ice fields and bottom temperature. A reinitialisation of model error covariances in accordance with seasonality of the model error statistics was required in order to maintain the predictive skill with respect to these variables. The success of the DA system is quantified by the comparison with independent data from MARNET stations as well as sea ice concentration measurements. In addition, the Maximum Entropy approach is used to assess the system performance and the prior and posterior model error statistics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Loza, Svetlana Danilov, Sergey Schröter, Jens Janjic Pfander, Tijana Nerger, Lars Janssen, Frank |
spellingShingle |
Loza, Svetlana Danilov, Sergey Schröter, Jens Janjic Pfander, Tijana Nerger, Lars Janssen, Frank Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
author_facet |
Loza, Svetlana Danilov, Sergey Schröter, Jens Janjic Pfander, Tijana Nerger, Lars Janssen, Frank |
author_sort |
Loza, Svetlana |
title |
Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
title_short |
Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
title_full |
Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
title_fullStr |
Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
title_sort |
assimilating noaa sst data into bsh operational circulation model for the north and baltic seas: part 2. sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics |
publisher |
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/1/Losa_et_al_2012b_JMS_rev2.pdf http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796313001498 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927 https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927.d001 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Journal of Marine Systems, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 129, pp. 259-270, ISSN: 0924-7963 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/33442/1/Losa_et_al_2012b_JMS_rev2.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.41927.d001 Loza, S. orcid:0000-0003-2153-1954 , Danilov, S. orcid:0000-0001-8098-182X , Schröter, J. orcid:0000-0002-9240-5798 , Janjic Pfander, T. , Nerger, L. orcid:0000-0002-1908-1010 and Janssen, F. (2014) Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part 2. Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics , Journal of Marine Systems, 129 , pp. 259-270 . doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011> , hdl:10013/epic.41927 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.011 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Systems |
container_volume |
129 |
container_start_page |
259 |
op_container_end_page |
270 |
_version_ |
1809941446053068800 |