Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present
We present a recently developed method of potential analysis of time series data, which comprises (1) derivation of the number of distinct global states of a system from time series data, and (2) derivation of the potential coefficients describing the location and stability of these states, using th...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:25777 2024-09-15T18:09:57+00:00 Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present Livina, Valerie Kwasniok, Frank Lohmann, Gerrit Kantelhardt, J. W. 2011 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/25777/ http://www.springerlink.com/content/n08331082327722v/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.38740 unknown SPRINGER Livina, V. , Kwasniok, F. , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Kantelhardt, J. W. (2011) Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present , Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12), pp. 2437-2453 . doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2> , hdl:10013/epic.38740 EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 37(11-12), pp. 2437-2453, ISSN: 0930-7575 Article isiRev 2011 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2 2024-06-24T04:03:41Z We present a recently developed method of potential analysis of time series data, which comprises (1) derivation of the number of distinct global states of a system from time series data, and (2) derivation of the potential coefficients describing the location and stability of these states, using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We test the method on artificial data and then apply it to climate records spanning progressively shorter time periods from 5.3 Myr ago to the recent observational record. We detect various changes in the number and stability of states in the climate system. The onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation roughly 3 Myr BP is detected as the appearance of a second climate state. During the last ice age in Greenland, there is a bifurcation representing the loss of stability of the warm interstadial state, followed by the total loss of this state around 25 kyr BP. The Holocene is generally characterized by a single stable climate state, especially at large scales. However, in the historical record, at the regional scale, the European monthly temperature anomaly temporarily exhibits a second, highly degenerate (unstable) state during the latter half of the eighteenth century. At the global scale, temperature is currently undergoing a forced movement of a single stable state rather than a bifurcation. The method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical systems with time series of sufficient length and temporal resolution, to look for bifurcations and their precursors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Climate Dynamics 37 11-12 2437 2453 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
We present a recently developed method of potential analysis of time series data, which comprises (1) derivation of the number of distinct global states of a system from time series data, and (2) derivation of the potential coefficients describing the location and stability of these states, using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We test the method on artificial data and then apply it to climate records spanning progressively shorter time periods from 5.3 Myr ago to the recent observational record. We detect various changes in the number and stability of states in the climate system. The onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation roughly 3 Myr BP is detected as the appearance of a second climate state. During the last ice age in Greenland, there is a bifurcation representing the loss of stability of the warm interstadial state, followed by the total loss of this state around 25 kyr BP. The Holocene is generally characterized by a single stable climate state, especially at large scales. However, in the historical record, at the regional scale, the European monthly temperature anomaly temporarily exhibits a second, highly degenerate (unstable) state during the latter half of the eighteenth century. At the global scale, temperature is currently undergoing a forced movement of a single stable state rather than a bifurcation. The method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical systems with time series of sufficient length and temporal resolution, to look for bifurcations and their precursors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Livina, Valerie Kwasniok, Frank Lohmann, Gerrit Kantelhardt, J. W. |
spellingShingle |
Livina, Valerie Kwasniok, Frank Lohmann, Gerrit Kantelhardt, J. W. Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
author_facet |
Livina, Valerie Kwasniok, Frank Lohmann, Gerrit Kantelhardt, J. W. |
author_sort |
Livina, Valerie |
title |
Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
title_short |
Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
title_full |
Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
title_fullStr |
Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present |
title_sort |
changing climate states and stability: from pliocene to present |
publisher |
SPRINGER |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/25777/ http://www.springerlink.com/content/n08331082327722v/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.38740 |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 37(11-12), pp. 2437-2453, ISSN: 0930-7575 |
op_relation |
Livina, V. , Kwasniok, F. , Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Kantelhardt, J. W. (2011) Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present , Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12), pp. 2437-2453 . doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2> , hdl:10013/epic.38740 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
2437 |
op_container_end_page |
2453 |
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1810447559880081408 |