Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability.
The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate v...
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:10971 2023-09-05T13:21:33+02:00 Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. Lohmann, Gerrit Schneider, Judit 1999 https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/10971/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.21435 unknown Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Schneider, J. (1999) Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. , TellusA, 51 , pp. 326-336 . hdl:10013/epic.21435 EPIC3TellusA, 51, pp. 326-336 Article isiRev 1999 ftawi 2023-08-22T19:49:01Z The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbation has little resemblance with the most unstable mode of the system and the leading EOF.Furthermore, the predictability problem is investigated by means of singular vector analysis and the evolution of the probability distribution function. Uncertainties in the oceanic initial conditions do increase in the phase space of the model. In the stochastically forced box model with identical oceanic initial conditions, the climate predictability is examined for the damped persistence forecast. We find that the loss of the predictability is related to the different stages of the variance evolution which is also measured by the relative entropy. Our analysis shows that the non-normal system matrix of Stommel's model does affect the dynamics and predictability of the system which is useful for the interpretation of long-term climate variability and predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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Open Polar |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbation has little resemblance with the most unstable mode of the system and the leading EOF.Furthermore, the predictability problem is investigated by means of singular vector analysis and the evolution of the probability distribution function. Uncertainties in the oceanic initial conditions do increase in the phase space of the model. In the stochastically forced box model with identical oceanic initial conditions, the climate predictability is examined for the damped persistence forecast. We find that the loss of the predictability is related to the different stages of the variance evolution which is also measured by the relative entropy. Our analysis shows that the non-normal system matrix of Stommel's model does affect the dynamics and predictability of the system which is useful for the interpretation of long-term climate variability and predictability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lohmann, Gerrit Schneider, Judit |
spellingShingle |
Lohmann, Gerrit Schneider, Judit Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
author_facet |
Lohmann, Gerrit Schneider, Judit |
author_sort |
Lohmann, Gerrit |
title |
Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
title_short |
Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
title_full |
Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
title_fullStr |
Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
title_sort |
dynamics and predictability of stommel's box model: a phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. |
publishDate |
1999 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/10971/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.21435 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
EPIC3TellusA, 51, pp. 326-336 |
op_relation |
Lohmann, G. orcid:0000-0003-2089-733X and Schneider, J. (1999) Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability. , TellusA, 51 , pp. 326-336 . hdl:10013/epic.21435 |
_version_ |
1776202159070642176 |