Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions
Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic...
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ftarchimer:oai:archimer.ifremer.fr:92240 2023-05-15T13:47:37+02:00 Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions Guillaumot, Charlene Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucede, Thomas 2022-11 application/pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98256.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98257.docx https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/ eng eng Wiley https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98256.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98257.docx doi:10.1111/ddi.13617 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use Diversity And Distributions (1366-9516) (Wiley), 2022-11 , Vol. 28 , N. 11 , P. 2286-2302 Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling text Publication info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftarchimer https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 2022-12-20T23:50:40Z Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM ('integrated SDM-DEB') or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM ('integrated Bayesian' approach). Results Results show higher performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with 'classic' and 'integrated SDM-DEB' methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions The good performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) Antarctic Baie du Morbihan ENVELOPE(70.189,70.189,-49.434,-49.434) Kerguelen Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean Diversity and Distributions 28 11 2286 2302 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) |
op_collection_id |
ftarchimer |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling Guillaumot, Charlene Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucede, Thomas Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
topic_facet |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling |
description |
Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM ('integrated SDM-DEB') or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM ('integrated Bayesian' approach). Results Results show higher performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with 'classic' and 'integrated SDM-DEB' methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions The good performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guillaumot, Charlene Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucede, Thomas |
author_facet |
Guillaumot, Charlene Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucede, Thomas |
author_sort |
Guillaumot, Charlene |
title |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_short |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_full |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_fullStr |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_sort |
classic or hybrid? the performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of southern ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98256.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98257.docx https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(70.189,70.189,-49.434,-49.434) |
geographic |
Antarctic Baie du Morbihan Kerguelen Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Baie du Morbihan Kerguelen Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Diversity And Distributions (1366-9516) (Wiley), 2022-11 , Vol. 28 , N. 11 , P. 2286-2302 |
op_relation |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98256.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/98257.docx doi:10.1111/ddi.13617 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00810/92240/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
2286 |
op_container_end_page |
2302 |
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1766247541709471744 |