Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf
Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeho...
Published in: | Journal of Applied Ecology |
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Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020
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Online Access: | https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76342.docx https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76343.csv https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13724 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/ |
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ftarchimer:oai:archimer.ifremer.fr:75490 2023-05-15T15:27:51+02:00 Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf Maltby, Katherine M. Rutterford, Louise A. Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin J. Simpson, Stephen D. Punt, Andre 2020-11 application/pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76342.docx https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76343.csv https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13724 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/ eng eng Wiley https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76342.docx https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76343.csv doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13724 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use Journal Of Applied Ecology (0021-8901) (Wiley), 2020-11 , Vol. 57 , N. 11 , P. 2222-2233 Celtic Sea climate change English Channel fish fisheries North Sea regional projections uncertainty text Publication info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftarchimer https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13724 2021-09-23T20:35:40Z Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4°C by 2098. For each species, Generalized Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet Mullus surmuletus L., Dover sole Solea solea L., John dory Zeus faber L. and lemon sole Microstomus kitt L. and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L., anglerfish Lophius piscatorius L. and megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L. European plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. Synthesis and applications. These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, with implications for decisions on target fishing mortality rates, fishing effort and allowable catches. Increasingly flexible and adaptive approaches that reduce climate impacts on species while also supporting industry adaptation are required. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) Dover ENVELOPE(-55.753,-55.753,-83.777,-83.777) Zeus ENVELOPE(140.020,140.020,-66.661,-66.661) Journal of Applied Ecology 57 11 2222 2233 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) |
op_collection_id |
ftarchimer |
language |
English |
topic |
Celtic Sea climate change English Channel fish fisheries North Sea regional projections uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
Celtic Sea climate change English Channel fish fisheries North Sea regional projections uncertainty Maltby, Katherine M. Rutterford, Louise A. Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin J. Simpson, Stephen D. Punt, Andre Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
topic_facet |
Celtic Sea climate change English Channel fish fisheries North Sea regional projections uncertainty |
description |
Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4°C by 2098. For each species, Generalized Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet Mullus surmuletus L., Dover sole Solea solea L., John dory Zeus faber L. and lemon sole Microstomus kitt L. and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L., anglerfish Lophius piscatorius L. and megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L. European plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. Synthesis and applications. These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, with implications for decisions on target fishing mortality rates, fishing effort and allowable catches. Increasingly flexible and adaptive approaches that reduce climate impacts on species while also supporting industry adaptation are required. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maltby, Katherine M. Rutterford, Louise A. Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin J. Simpson, Stephen D. Punt, Andre |
author_facet |
Maltby, Katherine M. Rutterford, Louise A. Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin J. Simpson, Stephen D. Punt, Andre |
author_sort |
Maltby, Katherine M. |
title |
Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_short |
Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_full |
Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_fullStr |
Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_sort |
projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the european continental shelf |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76342.docx https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76343.csv https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13724 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-55.753,-55.753,-83.777,-83.777) ENVELOPE(140.020,140.020,-66.661,-66.661) |
geographic |
Dover Zeus |
geographic_facet |
Dover Zeus |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Journal Of Applied Ecology (0021-8901) (Wiley), 2020-11 , Vol. 57 , N. 11 , P. 2222-2233 |
op_relation |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76342.docx https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76343.csv doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13724 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13724 |
container_title |
Journal of Applied Ecology |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
2222 |
op_container_end_page |
2233 |
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1766358249467019264 |