Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low...
Published in: | Ocean Science |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2019
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Online Access: | https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/ |
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ftarchimer:oai:archimer.ifremer.fr:61443 2023-10-25T01:41:02+02:00 Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic Desbruyères, Damien Mercier, Herle Maze, Guillaume Daniault, Nathalie 2019-06 application/pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/ eng eng Copernicus GmbH https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf doi:10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use Ocean Science (1812-0784) (Copernicus GmbH), 2019-06 , Vol. 15 , N. 3 , P. 809-817 text Article info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftarchimer https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 2023-09-26T22:51:07Z The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) Ocean Science 15 3 809 817 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) |
op_collection_id |
ftarchimer |
language |
English |
description |
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desbruyères, Damien Mercier, Herle Maze, Guillaume Daniault, Nathalie |
spellingShingle |
Desbruyères, Damien Mercier, Herle Maze, Guillaume Daniault, Nathalie Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
author_facet |
Desbruyères, Damien Mercier, Herle Maze, Guillaume Daniault, Nathalie |
author_sort |
Desbruyères, Damien |
title |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_short |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_sort |
surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar north atlantic |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Ocean Science (1812-0784) (Copernicus GmbH), 2019-06 , Vol. 15 , N. 3 , P. 809-817 |
op_relation |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf doi:10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
809 |
op_container_end_page |
817 |
_version_ |
1780737031658274816 |