Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?
One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
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ftarchimer:oai:archimer.ifremer.fr:44367 2023-05-15T14:34:52+02:00 Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? Yool, A. Popova, E. E. Coward, A. C. 2015-12 application/pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43977.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43978.zip https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011167 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/ eng eng Amer Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226520/EU//COMBINE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/EU//EURO-BASIN https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43977.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43978.zip doi:10.1002/2015JC011167 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/ 2015. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use CC-BY Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0027) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2015-12 , Vol. 120 , N. 12 , P. 7771-7790 marine ocean biogeochemistry Arctic Atlantic future text Publication info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftarchimer https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011167 2021-09-23T20:28:20Z One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic Ocean, they are constrained by the sea-ice and strong vertical stratification that characterize this region. However, Arctic sea-ice is currently declining, and forecasts suggest this may lead to completely ice-free summers by the mid-21st century. Such change may open the Arctic up to Atlantic-style spring blooms, and do so at the same time as Atlantic productivity is threatened by climate change-driven ocean stratification. Here we use low and high-resolution instances of a coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, to investigate productivity. Drivers of present-day patterns are identified, and changes in these across a climate change scenario (IPCC RCP 8.5) are analyzed. We find a globally significant decline in North Atlantic productivity (> -20%) by 2100, and a correspondingly significant rise in the Arctic (> +50%). However, rather than the future Arctic coming to resemble the current Atlantic, both regions are instead transitioning to a common, low nutrient regime. The North Pacific provides a counterexample where nutrients remain high and productivity increases with elevated temperature. These responses to climate change in the Atlantic and Arctic are common between model resolutions, suggesting an independence from resolution for key impacts. However, some responses, such as those in the North Pacific, differ between the simulations, suggesting the reverse and supporting the drive to more fine-scale resolutions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) Arctic Arctic Ocean Medusa ENVELOPE(157.417,157.417,-79.633,-79.633) Pacific Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 12 7771 7790 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) |
op_collection_id |
ftarchimer |
language |
English |
topic |
marine ocean biogeochemistry Arctic Atlantic future |
spellingShingle |
marine ocean biogeochemistry Arctic Atlantic future Yool, A. Popova, E. E. Coward, A. C. Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
topic_facet |
marine ocean biogeochemistry Arctic Atlantic future |
description |
One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic Ocean, they are constrained by the sea-ice and strong vertical stratification that characterize this region. However, Arctic sea-ice is currently declining, and forecasts suggest this may lead to completely ice-free summers by the mid-21st century. Such change may open the Arctic up to Atlantic-style spring blooms, and do so at the same time as Atlantic productivity is threatened by climate change-driven ocean stratification. Here we use low and high-resolution instances of a coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, to investigate productivity. Drivers of present-day patterns are identified, and changes in these across a climate change scenario (IPCC RCP 8.5) are analyzed. We find a globally significant decline in North Atlantic productivity (> -20%) by 2100, and a correspondingly significant rise in the Arctic (> +50%). However, rather than the future Arctic coming to resemble the current Atlantic, both regions are instead transitioning to a common, low nutrient regime. The North Pacific provides a counterexample where nutrients remain high and productivity increases with elevated temperature. These responses to climate change in the Atlantic and Arctic are common between model resolutions, suggesting an independence from resolution for key impacts. However, some responses, such as those in the North Pacific, differ between the simulations, suggesting the reverse and supporting the drive to more fine-scale resolutions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yool, A. Popova, E. E. Coward, A. C. |
author_facet |
Yool, A. Popova, E. E. Coward, A. C. |
author_sort |
Yool, A. |
title |
Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
title_short |
Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
title_full |
Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
title_fullStr |
Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic? |
title_sort |
future change in ocean productivity: is the arctic the new atlantic? |
publisher |
Amer Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43977.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43978.zip https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011167 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(157.417,157.417,-79.633,-79.633) |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Medusa Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Medusa Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0027) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2015-12 , Vol. 120 , N. 12 , P. 7771-7790 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226520/EU//COMBINE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/EU//EURO-BASIN https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43977.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43978.zip doi:10.1002/2015JC011167 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/ |
op_rights |
2015. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011167 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
7771 |
op_container_end_page |
7790 |
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1766307818047012864 |