A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality
Catch curves are widely used to estimate total mortality for exploited marine populations. The usual population dynamics model assumes constant recruitment across years and constant total mortality. We extend this to include annual recruitment and annual total mortality. Recruitment is treated as an...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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Language: | English |
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Canadian Science Publishing, Nrc Research Press
2012
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Online Access: | https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/22506.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-103 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/ |
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ftarchimer:oai:archimer.ifremer.fr:24168 2023-05-15T17:13:05+02:00 A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality Trenkel, Verena Bravington, Mark V. Lorance, Pascal 2012-11 application/pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/22506.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-103 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/ eng eng Canadian Science Publishing, Nrc Research Press info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/227390/EU//DEEPFISHMAN https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/22506.pdf doi:10.1139/f2012-103 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/ 2012, NRC Research Press or its licensors info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use Canadian Journal Of Fisheries And Aquatic Sciences (0706-652X) (Canadian Science Publishing, Nrc Research Press), 2012-11 , Vol. 69 , N. 11 , P. 1881-1893 text Publication info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2012 ftarchimer https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-103 2021-09-23T20:22:42Z Catch curves are widely used to estimate total mortality for exploited marine populations. The usual population dynamics model assumes constant recruitment across years and constant total mortality. We extend this to include annual recruitment and annual total mortality. Recruitment is treated as an uncorrelated random effect, while total mortality is modelled by a random walk. Data requirements are minimal as only proportions-at-age and total catches are needed. We obtain the effective sample size for aggregated proportion-at-age data based on fitting Dirichlet-multinomial distributions to the raw sampling data. Parameter estimation is carried out by approximate likelihood. We use simulations to study parameter estimability and estimation bias of four model versions, including models treating mortality as fixed effects and misspecified models. All model versions were, in general, estimable, though for certain parameter values or replicate runs they were not. Relative estimation bias of final year total mortalities and depletion rates were lower for the proposed random effects model compared with the fixed effects version for total mortality. The model is demonstrated for the case of blue ling (Molva dypterygia) to the west of the British Isles for the period 1988 to 2011. Article in Journal/Newspaper Molva dypterygia Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 69 11 1881 1893 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Archimer (Archive Institutionnelle de l'Ifremer - Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer) |
op_collection_id |
ftarchimer |
language |
English |
description |
Catch curves are widely used to estimate total mortality for exploited marine populations. The usual population dynamics model assumes constant recruitment across years and constant total mortality. We extend this to include annual recruitment and annual total mortality. Recruitment is treated as an uncorrelated random effect, while total mortality is modelled by a random walk. Data requirements are minimal as only proportions-at-age and total catches are needed. We obtain the effective sample size for aggregated proportion-at-age data based on fitting Dirichlet-multinomial distributions to the raw sampling data. Parameter estimation is carried out by approximate likelihood. We use simulations to study parameter estimability and estimation bias of four model versions, including models treating mortality as fixed effects and misspecified models. All model versions were, in general, estimable, though for certain parameter values or replicate runs they were not. Relative estimation bias of final year total mortalities and depletion rates were lower for the proposed random effects model compared with the fixed effects version for total mortality. The model is demonstrated for the case of blue ling (Molva dypterygia) to the west of the British Isles for the period 1988 to 2011. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Trenkel, Verena Bravington, Mark V. Lorance, Pascal |
spellingShingle |
Trenkel, Verena Bravington, Mark V. Lorance, Pascal A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
author_facet |
Trenkel, Verena Bravington, Mark V. Lorance, Pascal |
author_sort |
Trenkel, Verena |
title |
A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
title_short |
A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
title_full |
A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
title_fullStr |
A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
title_full_unstemmed |
A random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
title_sort |
random effects population dynamics model based on proportions-at-age and removal data for estimating total mortality |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing, Nrc Research Press |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/22506.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-103 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/ |
genre |
Molva dypterygia |
genre_facet |
Molva dypterygia |
op_source |
Canadian Journal Of Fisheries And Aquatic Sciences (0706-652X) (Canadian Science Publishing, Nrc Research Press), 2012-11 , Vol. 69 , N. 11 , P. 1881-1893 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/227390/EU//DEEPFISHMAN https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/22506.pdf doi:10.1139/f2012-103 https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00130/24168/ |
op_rights |
2012, NRC Research Press or its licensors info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess restricted use |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-103 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1881 |
op_container_end_page |
1893 |
_version_ |
1766069981686005760 |