Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability
The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation m...
Published in: | Biological Conservation |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/92744 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/5/MigratedxPub25949_RSD_2002.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/7/01_Lindenmayer_Small_mammals%2c_habitat_patches_2001.pdf.jpg |
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ftanucanberra:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/92744 2024-01-14T10:10:10+01:00 Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability Lacy, Robert Lindenmayer, David B http://hdl.handle.net/1885/92744 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/5/MigratedxPub25949_RSD_2002.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/7/01_Lindenmayer_Small_mammals%2c_habitat_patches_2001.pdf.jpg en_AU eng Elsevier 0006-3207 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/92744 doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/5/MigratedxPub25949_RSD_2002.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/7/01_Lindenmayer_Small_mammals%2c_habitat_patches_2001.pdf.jpg Biological Conservation Keywords: habitat fragmentation minimum viable population population modeling prediction small mammal species conservation Australia Animalia Antechinus Antechinus agilis Mammalia Pinus radiata Potato virus A Rattus Rattus fuscipes Antechinus Fragmentation VORTEX Journal article ftanucanberra https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 2023-12-15T09:36:31Z The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The work focussed on a fragmented forest in south-eastern Australia comprised of a network of 39 patches of native eucalypt forest surrounded by extensive stands of exotic softwood Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. A range of modelling scenarios were completed in which four broad factors were varied: (1) inter-patch variation in habitat quality; (2) the pattern of inter-patch dispersal; (3) the rate of inter-patch dispersal; and (4) the population sink effects of the Radiata Pine matrix that surrounded the eucalypt patches. Model predictions were made for the total number of animals, the distribution of animal density among patches, the total number of occupied patches, and the probability of patch occupancy. Predictions were then compared with observed values for these same measures based on extensive field surveys of small mammals in the patch system. For most models for the Bush Rat, the predicted relative density of animals per patch correlated well with the values estimated from field surveys. Predictions of patch occupancy were not significantly different from the actual value for the number of occupied patches in half the models tested. The better models explained 10-16% of the log-likelihood of the probability of patch occupancy. While some of the models gave reasonable forecasts of the number of occupied patches, even in these cases, they had only moderate ability to predict which patches were occupied. Field surveys revealed there was no relationship between patch area and population density for the Agile Antechinus - an outcome correctly predicted by only a few models. Five of the 18 scenarios completed for the Agile Antechinus gave predicted numbers of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Rattus rattus Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections Biological Conservation 103 3 247 265 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections |
op_collection_id |
ftanucanberra |
language |
English |
topic |
Keywords: habitat fragmentation minimum viable population population modeling prediction small mammal species conservation Australia Animalia Antechinus Antechinus agilis Mammalia Pinus radiata Potato virus A Rattus Rattus fuscipes Antechinus Fragmentation VORTEX |
spellingShingle |
Keywords: habitat fragmentation minimum viable population population modeling prediction small mammal species conservation Australia Animalia Antechinus Antechinus agilis Mammalia Pinus radiata Potato virus A Rattus Rattus fuscipes Antechinus Fragmentation VORTEX Lacy, Robert Lindenmayer, David B Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
topic_facet |
Keywords: habitat fragmentation minimum viable population population modeling prediction small mammal species conservation Australia Animalia Antechinus Antechinus agilis Mammalia Pinus radiata Potato virus A Rattus Rattus fuscipes Antechinus Fragmentation VORTEX |
description |
The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The work focussed on a fragmented forest in south-eastern Australia comprised of a network of 39 patches of native eucalypt forest surrounded by extensive stands of exotic softwood Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. A range of modelling scenarios were completed in which four broad factors were varied: (1) inter-patch variation in habitat quality; (2) the pattern of inter-patch dispersal; (3) the rate of inter-patch dispersal; and (4) the population sink effects of the Radiata Pine matrix that surrounded the eucalypt patches. Model predictions were made for the total number of animals, the distribution of animal density among patches, the total number of occupied patches, and the probability of patch occupancy. Predictions were then compared with observed values for these same measures based on extensive field surveys of small mammals in the patch system. For most models for the Bush Rat, the predicted relative density of animals per patch correlated well with the values estimated from field surveys. Predictions of patch occupancy were not significantly different from the actual value for the number of occupied patches in half the models tested. The better models explained 10-16% of the log-likelihood of the probability of patch occupancy. While some of the models gave reasonable forecasts of the number of occupied patches, even in these cases, they had only moderate ability to predict which patches were occupied. Field surveys revealed there was no relationship between patch area and population density for the Agile Antechinus - an outcome correctly predicted by only a few models. Five of the 18 scenarios completed for the Agile Antechinus gave predicted numbers of ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lacy, Robert Lindenmayer, David B |
author_facet |
Lacy, Robert Lindenmayer, David B |
author_sort |
Lacy, Robert |
title |
Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
title_short |
Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
title_full |
Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
title_fullStr |
Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability |
title_sort |
small mammals, habitat patches and pva models: a field test of model predictive ability |
publisher |
Elsevier |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1885/92744 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/5/MigratedxPub25949_RSD_2002.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/7/01_Lindenmayer_Small_mammals%2c_habitat_patches_2001.pdf.jpg |
genre |
Rattus rattus |
genre_facet |
Rattus rattus |
op_source |
Biological Conservation |
op_relation |
0006-3207 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/92744 doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/5/MigratedxPub25949_RSD_2002.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/92744/7/01_Lindenmayer_Small_mammals%2c_habitat_patches_2001.pdf.jpg |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00134-3 |
container_title |
Biological Conservation |
container_volume |
103 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
247 |
op_container_end_page |
265 |
_version_ |
1788064810140696576 |