How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?
We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in t...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62625 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/5/11_Folland_-_How_potentially_predictable.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/7/01_Folland_How_potentially_predictable_is_2011.pdf.jpg |
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ftanucanberra:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/62625 2024-01-14T10:08:57+01:00 How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? Folland, C.K. Scaife, A.A. Lindesay, Janette Stephenson, D.B. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62625 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/5/11_Folland_-_How_potentially_predictable.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/7/01_Folland_How_potentially_predictable_is_2011.pdf.jpg unknown John Wiley & Sons Inc 0899-8418 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62625 doi:10.1002/joc.2314 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/5/11_Folland_-_How_potentially_predictable.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/7/01_Folland_How_potentially_predictable_is_2011.pdf.jpg International Journal of Climatology Keywords: EL Nino North Atlantic oscillations QBO Sea surface temperature (SST) Seasonal forecasting Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric temperature Benchmarking Climate change Regression analysis Upper atmosphere Volcanoes Forecasting air temperature cl El Nino North Atlantic Oscillation Sea surface temperature Stratosphere Two-stage linear regression Journal article ftanucanberra https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314 2023-12-15T09:37:22Z We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections International Journal of Climatology 32 6 801 818 |
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Open Polar |
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Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections |
op_collection_id |
ftanucanberra |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Keywords: EL Nino North Atlantic oscillations QBO Sea surface temperature (SST) Seasonal forecasting Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric temperature Benchmarking Climate change Regression analysis Upper atmosphere Volcanoes Forecasting air temperature cl El Nino North Atlantic Oscillation Sea surface temperature Stratosphere Two-stage linear regression |
spellingShingle |
Keywords: EL Nino North Atlantic oscillations QBO Sea surface temperature (SST) Seasonal forecasting Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric temperature Benchmarking Climate change Regression analysis Upper atmosphere Volcanoes Forecasting air temperature cl El Nino North Atlantic Oscillation Sea surface temperature Stratosphere Two-stage linear regression Folland, C.K. Scaife, A.A. Lindesay, Janette Stephenson, D.B. How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
topic_facet |
Keywords: EL Nino North Atlantic oscillations QBO Sea surface temperature (SST) Seasonal forecasting Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric temperature Benchmarking Climate change Regression analysis Upper atmosphere Volcanoes Forecasting air temperature cl El Nino North Atlantic Oscillation Sea surface temperature Stratosphere Two-stage linear regression |
description |
We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Folland, C.K. Scaife, A.A. Lindesay, Janette Stephenson, D.B. |
author_facet |
Folland, C.K. Scaife, A.A. Lindesay, Janette Stephenson, D.B. |
author_sort |
Folland, C.K. |
title |
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
title_short |
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
title_full |
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
title_fullStr |
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? |
title_sort |
how potentially predictable is northern european winter climate a season ahead? |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons Inc |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62625 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/5/11_Folland_-_How_potentially_predictable.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/7/01_Folland_How_potentially_predictable_is_2011.pdf.jpg |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology |
op_relation |
0899-8418 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62625 doi:10.1002/joc.2314 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/5/11_Folland_-_How_potentially_predictable.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/62625/7/01_Folland_How_potentially_predictable_is_2011.pdf.jpg |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2314 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
801 |
op_container_end_page |
818 |
_version_ |
1788063387723235328 |