Mapping Scenario Narratives: A Technique to Enhance Landscape-scale Biodiversity Planning

• Published in: Conservation and Society
• Main Authors: Carter, Oberon, Mitchell, Michael, Porfirio, Luciana, Hugh, Sonia, Lockwood, Michael, Gilfedder, Louise, Lefroy, E.C.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Medknow Publications
• Subjects: spatial planning; alternative futures; scenario visualisation; landscape change; private land conservation; Tasmanian Midlands; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Griffith; Murdoch; Antarc*; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/242801; https://doi.org/10.4103/cs.cs_15_121; https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/242801/3/01_Carter_Mapping_Scenario_Narratives%253A_A_2017.pdf.jpg

Developing regional scenarios enables planners to engage land managers in discussions about the future, especially in contexts that are complex, uncertain and difficult to control. Richly-crafted qualitative narratives are an effective way to document future scenarios that integrate social, economic and biophysical attributes. Converting such narratives into spatial representations of future landscapes often relies on computational modelling. This paper presents an alternative technique. Key themes from scenario narratives are translated into spatial representations using simple rule sets within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The technique was applied to a case study exploring future scenarios for biodiversity in a predominantly privately-owned agricultural landscape. Iterative analysis of scenarios and their spatial implications enables land managers to explore outcomes from potential interventions and identify strategies that might mitigate the impact of future issues of environmental concern. This paper is an output from the Landscapes and Policy Research Hub. The hub was supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Programme and involved researchers from the University of Tasmania, The Australian National University, Murdoch University, the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Griffith University and Charles Sturt University.