A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such a...
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ftanucanberra:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/159674 2024-01-14T10:00:22+01:00 A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1885/159674 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/159674/5/01_Emetc_A_statistical_fracture_model_2018.pdf.jpg en_AU eng Copernicus Group 1994-0416 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/159674 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/159674/5/01_Emetc_A_statistical_fracture_model_2018.pdf.jpg Authors retain copyright https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/ Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0 Cryosphere Journal article ftanucanberra https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 2023-12-15T09:36:11Z Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland The Cryosphere 12 10 3187 3213 |
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Open Polar |
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Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections |
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ftanucanberra |
language |
English |
description |
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm |
spellingShingle |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
author_facet |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Morlighem, Mathieu Borstad, Chris Sambridge, Malcolm |
author_sort |
Emetc, Veronika |
title |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_short |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_fullStr |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_sort |
statistical fracture model for antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
publisher |
Copernicus Group |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1885/159674 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/159674/5/01_Emetc_A_statistical_fracture_model_2018.pdf.jpg |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_source |
Cryosphere |
op_relation |
1994-0416 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/159674 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/159674/5/01_Emetc_A_statistical_fracture_model_2018.pdf.jpg |
op_rights |
Authors retain copyright https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/ Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3187 |
op_container_end_page |
3213 |
_version_ |
1788065482073440256 |