Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate re...
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ftanucanberra:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/143567 2024-01-14T10:00:37+01:00 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143567 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/143567/4/Jonesetal2016_NatureClimateChange_inpress.pdf.jpg unknown Nature Publishing Group http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP140102059 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP110101161 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL100100214 1758-678X http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143567 doi:10.1038/nclimate3103 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/143567/4/Jonesetal2016_NatureClimateChange_inpress.pdf.jpg http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1758-678X/."Author's post-print on author's personal website, institutional repository, PubMed Central or funding body's archive. 6 months embargo" from SHERPA/RoMEO site (as at 22/05/18). Nature Climate Change Journal article ftanucanberra https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 2023-12-15T09:33:10Z Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Support was provided by the following organizations: N.J.A: QEII fellowship and Discovery Project awarded by the Australian Research Council (ARC DP110101161 and DP140102059); M.H.E., ARC Laureate Fellowship (FL100100214); V.M.D., Agence Nationale de la Recherche, project ANR-14-CE01-0001 (ASUMA), and logistical support to French Antarctic studies from the Institut Polaire Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV); B.S., PAGES Antarctica 2k and the ESF-PolarClimate HOLOCLIP project; H.G., the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS-Belgium), where he is Research Director; P.O.C., research grant ANPCyT PICT2012 2927; R.L.F., NSF grant 1341621; E.J.S., the Leverhulme Trust; S.T.G., NSF grants OCE-1234473 and PLR-1425989; D.P.S., NSF grant 1235231; NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF); G.R.S., NSF grants AGS-1206120 and AGS-1407360; D.S., the French ANR CEPS project Green Greenland (ANR-10-CEPL-0008); G.J.M., UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Sea ice Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections Antarctic Greenland Paul-Emile Victor ENVELOPE(136.500,136.500,-66.333,-66.333) Nature Climate Change 6 10 917 926 |
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Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections |
op_collection_id |
ftanucanberra |
language |
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description |
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Support was provided by the following organizations: N.J.A: QEII fellowship and Discovery Project awarded by the Australian Research Council (ARC DP110101161 and DP140102059); M.H.E., ARC Laureate Fellowship (FL100100214); V.M.D., Agence Nationale de la Recherche, project ANR-14-CE01-0001 (ASUMA), and logistical support to French Antarctic studies from the Institut Polaire Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV); B.S., PAGES Antarctica 2k and the ESF-PolarClimate HOLOCLIP project; H.G., the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS-Belgium), where he is Research Director; P.O.C., research grant ANPCyT PICT2012 2927; R.L.F., NSF grant 1341621; E.J.S., the Leverhulme Trust; S.T.G., NSF grants OCE-1234473 and PLR-1425989; D.P.S., NSF grant 1235231; NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF); G.R.S., NSF grants AGS-1206120 and AGS-1407360; D.S., the French ANR CEPS project Green Greenland (ANR-10-CEPL-0008); G.J.M., UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
spellingShingle |
Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
author_facet |
Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
author_sort |
Jones, Julie M. |
title |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_short |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_sort |
assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143567 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/143567/4/Jonesetal2016_NatureClimateChange_inpress.pdf.jpg |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(136.500,136.500,-66.333,-66.333) |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland Paul-Emile Victor |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland Paul-Emile Victor |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change |
op_relation |
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP140102059 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP110101161 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL100100214 1758-678X http://hdl.handle.net/1885/143567 doi:10.1038/nclimate3103 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/143567/4/Jonesetal2016_NatureClimateChange_inpress.pdf.jpg |
op_rights |
http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1758-678X/."Author's post-print on author's personal website, institutional repository, PubMed Central or funding body's archive. 6 months embargo" from SHERPA/RoMEO site (as at 22/05/18). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
917 |
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926 |
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