The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030
Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to c...
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ftanucanberra:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/12429 2024-01-14T10:09:05+01:00 The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna 21 pages application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1885/12429 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/12429/2/Journal%20of%20Asian%20Economics.pdf.jpg en_AU eng Elsevier 1049-0078 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/12429 doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/12429/2/Journal%20of%20Asian%20Economics.pdf.jpg © 2012 Elsevier Inc. Journal of Asian Economics 23. 4 (2012): 303–323 global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes Journal article ftanucanberra https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 2023-12-15T09:37:01Z Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra-and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy. The authors are grateful for for funding support from the Asian Development Bank, the Australian Research Council, the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and Waikato Management School. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections Journal of Asian Economics 23 4 303 323 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Australian National University: ANU Digital Collections |
op_collection_id |
ftanucanberra |
language |
English |
topic |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes |
spellingShingle |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
topic_facet |
global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth South–South trade intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes |
description |
Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra-and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy. The authors are grateful for for funding support from the Asian Development Bank, the Australian Research Council, the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and Waikato Management School. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna |
author_facet |
Anderson, Kym Strutt, Anna |
author_sort |
Anderson, Kym |
title |
The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
title_short |
The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
title_full |
The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
title_fullStr |
The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
title_sort |
changing geography of world trade: projections to 2030 |
publisher |
Elsevier |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1885/12429 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/12429/2/Journal%20of%20Asian%20Economics.pdf.jpg |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Asian Economics 23. 4 (2012): 303–323 |
op_relation |
1049-0078 http://hdl.handle.net/1885/12429 doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/12429/2/Journal%20of%20Asian%20Economics.pdf.jpg |
op_rights |
© 2012 Elsevier Inc. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001 |
container_title |
Journal of Asian Economics |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
303 |
op_container_end_page |
323 |
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1788063547573403648 |