Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill
International audience Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
id |
ftanrparis:oai:HAL:hal-03738304v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Portail HAL-ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) |
op_collection_id |
ftanrparis |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Acosta Navarro, J. C. Ortega, P. Batté, L. Smith, D. Bretonnière, P. A. Guemas, V. Massonnet, F. Sicardi, V. Torralba, V. Tourigny, E. Doblas-Reyes, F. J. Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice-atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems. |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UK METOFFICE EXETER GBR Partenaires IRSTEA Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) ANR-17-MPGA-0003,ASET,Atmosphere - Sea ice Exchanges and Teleconections(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Acosta Navarro, J. C. Ortega, P. Batté, L. Smith, D. Bretonnière, P. A. Guemas, V. Massonnet, F. Sicardi, V. Torralba, V. Tourigny, E. Doblas-Reyes, F. J. |
author_facet |
Acosta Navarro, J. C. Ortega, P. Batté, L. Smith, D. Bretonnière, P. A. Guemas, V. Massonnet, F. Sicardi, V. Torralba, V. Tourigny, E. Doblas-Reyes, F. J. |
author_sort |
Acosta Navarro, J. C. |
title |
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
title_short |
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
title_full |
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
title_fullStr |
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
title_full_unstemmed |
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill |
title_sort |
link between autumnal arctic sea ice and northern hemisphere winter forecast skill |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03738304 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (5), ⟨10.1029/2019GL086753⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL086753 hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf doi:10.1029/2019GL086753 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
5 |
_version_ |
1809762700090146816 |
spelling |
ftanrparis:oai:HAL:hal-03738304v1 2024-09-09T19:22:25+00:00 Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill Acosta Navarro, J. C. Ortega, P. Batté, L. Smith, D. Bretonnière, P. A. Guemas, V. Massonnet, F. Sicardi, V. Torralba, V. Tourigny, E. Doblas-Reyes, F. J. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UK METOFFICE EXETER GBR Partenaires IRSTEA Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) ANR-17-MPGA-0003,ASET,Atmosphere - Sea ice Exchanges and Teleconections(2017) 2020-03-16 https://hal.science/hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL086753 hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304 https://hal.science/hal-03738304/document https://hal.science/hal-03738304/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Acosta%20Navarro%20-%20Link%20Between%20Autumnal%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20and%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter.pdf doi:10.1029/2019GL086753 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03738304 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (5), ⟨10.1029/2019GL086753⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftanrparis https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 2024-07-12T10:59:00Z International audience Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice-atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice Portail HAL-ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) Arctic Kara Sea Geophysical Research Letters 47 5 |