Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
International audience Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950-2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric cir...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/document https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/file/Manuscript_Faranda_et_al_PNAS_Accepted_Merged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
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Portail HAL-ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) |
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English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950-2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe, and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant at the p-0.05 level, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically-driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) London Mathematical Laboratory Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ANR-20-CE01-0008,SAMPRACE,Simuler des Evenements Climatiques Rares(2020) European Project: 101003469,XAIDA European Project: 956396,EDIPI |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_facet |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_sort |
Faranda, Davide |
title |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_short |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_full |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_sort |
atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in europe |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/document https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/file/Manuscript_Faranda_et_al_PNAS_Accepted_Merged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-03456537 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, 120 (13), pp.e2214525120. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2214525120⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101003469/EU/eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution/XAIDA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//956396/EU/european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts/EDIPI hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/document https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/file/Manuscript_Faranda_et_al_PNAS_Accepted_Merged.pdf doi:10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
13 |
_version_ |
1811642239705677824 |
spelling |
ftanrparis:oai:HAL:hal-03456537v3 2024-09-30T14:39:38+00:00 Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) London Mathematical Laboratory Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ANR-20-CE01-0008,SAMPRACE,Simuler des Evenements Climatiques Rares(2020) European Project: 101003469,XAIDA European Project: 956396,EDIPI 2023-03-21 https://hal.science/hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/document https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/file/Manuscript_Faranda_et_al_PNAS_Accepted_Merged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101003469/EU/eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution/XAIDA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//956396/EU/european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts/EDIPI hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537 https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/document https://hal.science/hal-03456537v3/file/Manuscript_Faranda_et_al_PNAS_Accepted_Merged.pdf doi:10.1073/pnas.2214525120 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-03456537 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, 120 (13), pp.e2214525120. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2214525120⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftanrparis https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 2024-09-05T00:06:57Z International audience Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950-2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe, and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant at the p-0.05 level, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically-driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Portail HAL-ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120 13 |