Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty
External Organisations University of Bristol; British Antarctic Survey; Centre for the Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Associated Persons Jennifer J. Freer (Creator); Geraint A. Tarling (Creator); Martin A. Collins (Creator); Martin J. Genner (Creator) Predicting how species will respo...
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Online Access: | https://researchdata.edu.au/data-from-predicting-climate-uncertainty/1696176 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4f98t |
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ftands:oai:ands.org.au::1696176 2023-05-15T13:38:54+02:00 Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty Julian Partridge (Creator) Oceans Institute (isManagedBy) https://researchdata.edu.au/data-from-predicting-climate-uncertainty/1696176 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4f98t unknown The University of Western Australia https://researchdata.edu.au/data-from-predicting-climate-uncertainty/1696176 b9b4f7bd-1710-45ec-9348-e375332f0bd9 doi:10.5061/dryad.4f98t University of Western Australia Electrona antarctica climate model IPCC projection uncertainty sea surface temperature dataset ftands https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4f98t 2023-02-06T23:29:58Z External Organisations University of Bristol; British Antarctic Survey; Centre for the Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Associated Persons Jennifer J. Freer (Creator); Geraint A. Tarling (Creator); Martin A. Collins (Creator); Martin J. Genner (Creator) Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.,processed CMIP5 SST projectionsThis file has ... Dataset Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica British Antarctic Survey Research Data Australia (Australian National Data Service - ANDS) Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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Research Data Australia (Australian National Data Service - ANDS) |
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unknown |
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Electrona antarctica climate model IPCC projection uncertainty sea surface temperature |
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Electrona antarctica climate model IPCC projection uncertainty sea surface temperature Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
topic_facet |
Electrona antarctica climate model IPCC projection uncertainty sea surface temperature |
description |
External Organisations University of Bristol; British Antarctic Survey; Centre for the Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Associated Persons Jennifer J. Freer (Creator); Geraint A. Tarling (Creator); Martin A. Collins (Creator); Martin J. Genner (Creator) Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.,processed CMIP5 SST projectionsThis file has ... |
author2 |
Julian Partridge (Creator) Oceans Institute (isManagedBy) |
format |
Dataset |
title |
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
title_short |
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
title_full |
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
title_sort |
data from: predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty |
publisher |
The University of Western Australia |
url |
https://researchdata.edu.au/data-from-predicting-climate-uncertainty/1696176 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4f98t |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica British Antarctic Survey |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica British Antarctic Survey |
op_source |
University of Western Australia |
op_relation |
https://researchdata.edu.au/data-from-predicting-climate-uncertainty/1696176 b9b4f7bd-1710-45ec-9348-e375332f0bd9 doi:10.5061/dryad.4f98t |
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https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4f98t |
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1766112315850096640 |