OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION
The objective of the present study is to develop an optimal life extension management strategy for ageing offshore wind farms. The optimal management strategy is attained by minimising the overall risk of a group of different assets based on the principles of the modern portfolio theory. The statist...
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American Society of Mechanical Engineers
2022
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ftalborgunivpubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/4069aaba-6b46-472f-b4ec-33a1f7fd000f 2024-09-15T17:50:29+00:00 OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION Yeter, Baran Garbatov, Yordan Soares, Carlos Guedes 2022 https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/4069aaba-6b46-472f-b4ec-33a1f7fd000f https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140758792&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng American Society of Mechanical Engineers https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/4069aaba-6b46-472f-b4ec-33a1f7fd000f urn:ISBN:9780791885864 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Yeter , B , Garbatov , Y & Soares , C G 2022 , OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION . in Structures, Safety, and Reliability . , V002T02A060 , American Society of Mechanical Engineers , Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE , vol. 2 , ASME 2022 41st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE 2022 , Hamburg , Germany , 05/06/2022 . https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 Life extension modern portfolio theory monopile offshore wind turbine structural integrity contributionToPeriodical 2022 ftalborgunivpubl https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 2024-09-05T14:36:16Z The objective of the present study is to develop an optimal life extension management strategy for ageing offshore wind farms. The optimal management strategy is attained by minimising the overall risk of a group of different assets based on the principles of the modern portfolio theory. The statistical measures regarding the risk and expected return are obtained through a probabilistic techno-economic assessment, which considers the mean wind speed, capacity factor, degradation severity, initial crack size and feed-in tariff as stochastic variables. The expected return accounts for the time-weighted incremental free cash flows. The risk and return of the offshore wind farm are investigated under optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios. Finally, the optimal allocation (portfolio) of offshore wind assets attained based on the mean-variance optimisation is presented for the different stages of the life extension of the offshore wind farms accounting for the uncertainty propagation during the life extension. The uncertainty propagation is reflected in the correlation and variability between the offshore wind turbines and their operation. The results indicate that a significant risk reduction can be achieved by employing an offshore wind asset allocation according to the risk-adjusted portfolio. Also, the benefit of using a risk-adjusted allocation increases as the life extension moves on. The outcome of the present study can be useful for the feature engineering part of the deep neural network training for the classification of ageing offshore wind turbines. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Aalborg University's Research Portal Volume 2: Structures, Safety, and Reliability |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aalborg University's Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftalborgunivpubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Life extension modern portfolio theory monopile offshore wind turbine structural integrity |
spellingShingle |
Life extension modern portfolio theory monopile offshore wind turbine structural integrity Yeter, Baran Garbatov, Yordan Soares, Carlos Guedes OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
topic_facet |
Life extension modern portfolio theory monopile offshore wind turbine structural integrity |
description |
The objective of the present study is to develop an optimal life extension management strategy for ageing offshore wind farms. The optimal management strategy is attained by minimising the overall risk of a group of different assets based on the principles of the modern portfolio theory. The statistical measures regarding the risk and expected return are obtained through a probabilistic techno-economic assessment, which considers the mean wind speed, capacity factor, degradation severity, initial crack size and feed-in tariff as stochastic variables. The expected return accounts for the time-weighted incremental free cash flows. The risk and return of the offshore wind farm are investigated under optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios. Finally, the optimal allocation (portfolio) of offshore wind assets attained based on the mean-variance optimisation is presented for the different stages of the life extension of the offshore wind farms accounting for the uncertainty propagation during the life extension. The uncertainty propagation is reflected in the correlation and variability between the offshore wind turbines and their operation. The results indicate that a significant risk reduction can be achieved by employing an offshore wind asset allocation according to the risk-adjusted portfolio. Also, the benefit of using a risk-adjusted allocation increases as the life extension moves on. The outcome of the present study can be useful for the feature engineering part of the deep neural network training for the classification of ageing offshore wind turbines. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yeter, Baran Garbatov, Yordan Soares, Carlos Guedes |
author_facet |
Yeter, Baran Garbatov, Yordan Soares, Carlos Guedes |
author_sort |
Yeter, Baran |
title |
OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
title_short |
OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
title_full |
OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
title_fullStr |
OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
title_full_unstemmed |
OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION |
title_sort |
optimal management of offshore wind assets at different stages of life extension accounting for uncertainty propagation |
publisher |
American Society of Mechanical Engineers |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/4069aaba-6b46-472f-b4ec-33a1f7fd000f https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140758792&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Yeter , B , Garbatov , Y & Soares , C G 2022 , OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LIFE EXTENSION ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION . in Structures, Safety, and Reliability . , V002T02A060 , American Society of Mechanical Engineers , Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE , vol. 2 , ASME 2022 41st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE 2022 , Hamburg , Germany , 05/06/2022 . https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 |
op_relation |
https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/4069aaba-6b46-472f-b4ec-33a1f7fd000f urn:ISBN:9780791885864 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2022-78185 |
container_title |
Volume 2: Structures, Safety, and Reliability |
_version_ |
1810292296380317696 |