Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations
International audience In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose...
Published in: | Evolutionary Applications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/file/2018_Young_Evolutionary%20Applications_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 |
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ftagroparistech:oai:HAL:hal-02627947v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
AgroParisTech: HAL (Institut des sciences et industries du vivant et de l'environnement) |
op_collection_id |
ftagroparistech |
language |
English |
topic |
connectivity individual-based modelling Notothenia rossii ocean warming Scotia Sea Champsocephalus gunnari population genetics [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
connectivity individual-based modelling Notothenia rossii ocean warming Scotia Sea Champsocephalus gunnari population genetics [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
topic_facet |
connectivity individual-based modelling Notothenia rossii ocean warming Scotia Sea Champsocephalus gunnari population genetics [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
International audience In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual-based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N.rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of -1,500km, the genetic isolation of C.gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level ... |
author2 |
British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (UMR ECOFOG) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech-Université de Guyane (UG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) Bangor University School of Life and Environm ental Sciences University of Sydney Natural Environment Research Council AFI06/16, NE/H023038/1, NE/H023704/1 Investissement d'Avenir of the ANR ANR-10-LABX-25-01 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
author_facet |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
author_sort |
Young, Emma F. |
title |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_short |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_fullStr |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_sort |
stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/file/2018_Young_Evolutionary%20Applications_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.992,-63.992,-64.786,-64.786) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
op_source |
ISSN: 1752-4563 EISSN: 1752-4571 Evolutionary Applications https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 Evolutionary Applications, 2018, 11 (6), pp.978-994. ⟨10.1111/eva.12613⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/eva.12613 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/29928304 hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/file/2018_Young_Evolutionary%20Applications_1.pdf doi:10.1111/eva.12613 PRODINRA: 461626 PUBMED: 29928304 WOS: 000435084900013 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 |
container_title |
Evolutionary Applications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
978 |
op_container_end_page |
994 |
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1790594420927627264 |
spelling |
ftagroparistech:oai:HAL:hal-02627947v1 2024-02-11T09:58:42+01:00 Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (UMR ECOFOG) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech-Université de Guyane (UG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) Bangor University School of Life and Environm ental Sciences University of Sydney Natural Environment Research Council AFI06/16, NE/H023038/1, NE/H023704/1 Investissement d'Avenir of the ANR ANR-10-LABX-25-01 2018 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/file/2018_Young_Evolutionary%20Applications_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 en eng HAL CCSD Blackwell info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/eva.12613 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/29928304 hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947/file/2018_Young_Evolutionary%20Applications_1.pdf doi:10.1111/eva.12613 PRODINRA: 461626 PUBMED: 29928304 WOS: 000435084900013 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1752-4563 EISSN: 1752-4571 Evolutionary Applications https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02627947 Evolutionary Applications, 2018, 11 (6), pp.978-994. ⟨10.1111/eva.12613⟩ connectivity individual-based modelling Notothenia rossii ocean warming Scotia Sea Champsocephalus gunnari population genetics [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftagroparistech https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 2024-01-23T23:51:04Z International audience In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual-based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N.rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of -1,500km, the genetic isolation of C.gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones AgroParisTech: HAL (Institut des sciences et industries du vivant et de l'environnement) Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones ENVELOPE(-63.992,-63.992,-64.786,-64.786) Evolutionary Applications 11 6 978 994 |