How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula?
Dataset available in: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7913 The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability of the region it is not easy to assess whether observed recent cooling trends are con...
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ftaemet:oai:repositorio.aemet.es:20.500.11765/9873 2024-06-23T07:47:48+00:00 How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? González Herrero, Sergi Fortuny, Didac 2018 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/9873 eng eng Cambridge University Press https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0954102018000251 Antartic Science. 2018, 30(5), p. 322-328 0954-1020 1365-2079 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/9873 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Temperature trend Sensitivity Global warming Antarctic Peninsula Climate change Variability info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint 2018 ftaemet https://doi.org/20.500.11765/987310.1017/S0954102018000251 2024-06-03T14:17:56Z Dataset available in: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7913 The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability of the region it is not easy to assess whether observed recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, in this paper we assess the robustness of the trends by analyzing their sensitivity with respect to the choice of time period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the 1958-2016 interval has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. Our results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (whit larger magnitude and lower significance). Instead, periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as an evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend. This work is supported by Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) trough AEMET Antarctic program. Report Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula ARCIMÍS (Archivo Climatológico y Meteorológico Institucional - AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Whit ENVELOPE(-65.916,-65.916,-66.033,-66.033) Antarctic Science 30 5 322 328 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ARCIMÍS (Archivo Climatológico y Meteorológico Institucional - AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) |
op_collection_id |
ftaemet |
language |
English |
topic |
Temperature trend Sensitivity Global warming Antarctic Peninsula Climate change Variability |
spellingShingle |
Temperature trend Sensitivity Global warming Antarctic Peninsula Climate change Variability González Herrero, Sergi Fortuny, Didac How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
topic_facet |
Temperature trend Sensitivity Global warming Antarctic Peninsula Climate change Variability |
description |
Dataset available in: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7913 The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability of the region it is not easy to assess whether observed recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, in this paper we assess the robustness of the trends by analyzing their sensitivity with respect to the choice of time period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the 1958-2016 interval has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. Our results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (whit larger magnitude and lower significance). Instead, periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as an evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend. This work is supported by Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) trough AEMET Antarctic program. |
format |
Report |
author |
González Herrero, Sergi Fortuny, Didac |
author_facet |
González Herrero, Sergi Fortuny, Didac |
author_sort |
González Herrero, Sergi |
title |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_short |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_full |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_fullStr |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_sort |
how robust are the temperature trends on the antarctic peninsula? |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/9873 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-65.916,-65.916,-66.033,-66.033) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Whit |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Whit |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0954102018000251 Antartic Science. 2018, 30(5), p. 322-328 0954-1020 1365-2079 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/9873 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11765/987310.1017/S0954102018000251 |
container_title |
Antarctic Science |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
322 |
op_container_end_page |
328 |
_version_ |
1802637967497363456 |