Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison
In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We asse...
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ftaemet:oai:repositorio.aemet.es:20.500.11765/520 2024-06-23T07:45:00+00:00 Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison Huneeus, Nicolas Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanovic, Goran Nickovic, Slodoban Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas Agulló, Emilio Baldasano, José María Pey, Jorge Remy, Samuel Cvetkovic, Bojan 2016 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/520 eng eng European Geosciences Union https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/262254 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/283576 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/633080 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2016, 16(8), p. 4967-4986 1680-7316 1680-7324 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/520 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Dust storm Intrusión de polvo Polvo africano Predicción meteorológica Dust outbreak African dust Forecasting info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftaemet https://doi.org/20.500.11765/52010.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 2024-06-03T14:17:56Z In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead-times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead-times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead-times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards Northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. The authors acknowledge AERONET (http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov) and thank the PIs of the AERONET stations used in this paper for maintaining the observation program and the AERONET-Europe TNA (EU-ACTRIS grant no. 262254) for contributing to calibration efforts. S. Basart acknowledges the Catalan Government ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Aerosol Robotic Network ARCIMÍS (Archivo Climatológico y Meteorológico Institucional - AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 8 4967 4986 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ARCIMÍS (Archivo Climatológico y Meteorológico Institucional - AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) |
op_collection_id |
ftaemet |
language |
English |
topic |
Dust storm Intrusión de polvo Polvo africano Predicción meteorológica Dust outbreak African dust Forecasting |
spellingShingle |
Dust storm Intrusión de polvo Polvo africano Predicción meteorológica Dust outbreak African dust Forecasting Huneeus, Nicolas Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanovic, Goran Nickovic, Slodoban Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas Agulló, Emilio Baldasano, José María Pey, Jorge Remy, Samuel Cvetkovic, Bojan Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
topic_facet |
Dust storm Intrusión de polvo Polvo africano Predicción meteorológica Dust outbreak African dust Forecasting |
description |
In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead-times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead-times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead-times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards Northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. The authors acknowledge AERONET (http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov) and thank the PIs of the AERONET stations used in this paper for maintaining the observation program and the AERONET-Europe TNA (EU-ACTRIS grant no. 262254) for contributing to calibration efforts. S. Basart acknowledges the Catalan Government ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huneeus, Nicolas Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanovic, Goran Nickovic, Slodoban Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas Agulló, Emilio Baldasano, José María Pey, Jorge Remy, Samuel Cvetkovic, Bojan |
author_facet |
Huneeus, Nicolas Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanovic, Goran Nickovic, Slodoban Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas Agulló, Emilio Baldasano, José María Pey, Jorge Remy, Samuel Cvetkovic, Bojan |
author_sort |
Huneeus, Nicolas |
title |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
forecasting the northern african dust outbreak towards europe in april 2011: a model intercomparison |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/520 |
genre |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
genre_facet |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/262254 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/283576 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/633080 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2016, 16(8), p. 4967-4986 1680-7316 1680-7324 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/520 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11765/52010.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
4967 |
op_container_end_page |
4986 |
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1802645682246385664 |