The impacts of climate oscillations on food production quantity: a global analysis

• Main Author: Heino, Matias
• Other Authors: Kummu, Matti, Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu, Aalto-yliopisto, Aalto University
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: ENSO; NAO; IOD; climate; oscillation; food production; Indian; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/21042

The current El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter of 2015-2016. Previous El Niño events have caused strong climatological anomalies, which have had significant effects on crop yields in many parts of the globe. In addition to the ENSO, also the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to strongly affect climatological processes worldwide. Because the occurrence of the oscillations can be predicted even a year in advance, detailed information about their impacts on agricultural yields is highly valuable to ensure adequate food supplies. In this study the relationship of the ENSO, the IOD and the NAO with food production was assessed globally for the first time. The food production data was obtained from the LPJmL model over the period 1950-2006 keeping other than climate parameters constant. The study was conducted by i) comparing the simulated food production quantity during strongly oscillating years and all years, ii) identifying the sensitivity of food production to variations in the oscillation indices, iii) examining whether food production quantity is influenced by several oscillations simultaneously and iv) investigating whether the relationship between food production and the oscillations have changed over time. The research revealed that over four billion people live in areas where at least one of the oscillations cause significant anomalies in food production quantity. Furthermore, it confirmed already existing understanding for example regarding the sensitivity of Australia’s food production to the IOD as well as many other connections between food production with the ENSO (e.g. in India, Southeast Asia and Latin America) and the NAO (e.g. in eastern China and northern Europe) in many areas across the world. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) koki voimakkaan huipun pohjoisen pallonpuoliskon talvella 2015-2016. Aikaisemmat El Niño tapahtumat ovat aiheuttaneet voimakkaita anomalioita ilmastossa eri ...