Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories
AbstractMost research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire....
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dataone:sha256:4528d765645c7e1c2c4d9dcd4d3770eb935ffdfda9422f0cf49070ea9926ad93 2024-06-03T18:47:06+00:00 Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex 2023-01-17T00:00:00Z https://search.dataone.org/view/sha256:4528d765645c7e1c2c4d9dcd4d3770eb935ffdfda9422f0cf49070ea9926ad93 unknown Ecology Woodland boreal caribou fire Other SpaDES climate change Rangifer species at risk Ecological forecasting anthropogenic change vegetation habitat Dataset 2023 dataone:urn:node:BOREALIS 2024-06-03T18:19:24Z AbstractMost research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. Dataset Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains Unknown Canada Lambda ENVELOPE(-62.983,-62.983,-64.300,-64.300) Northwest Territories |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
dataone:urn:node:BOREALIS |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Ecology Woodland boreal caribou fire Other SpaDES climate change Rangifer species at risk Ecological forecasting anthropogenic change vegetation habitat |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Woodland boreal caribou fire Other SpaDES climate change Rangifer species at risk Ecological forecasting anthropogenic change vegetation habitat Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
topic_facet |
Ecology Woodland boreal caribou fire Other SpaDES climate change Rangifer species at risk Ecological forecasting anthropogenic change vegetation habitat |
description |
AbstractMost research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex |
author_facet |
Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex |
author_sort |
Stewart, Frances |
title |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_short |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_full |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_fullStr |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_sort |
estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (r, s, lambda) generated from spades landscape simulations in the northwest territories |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://search.dataone.org/view/sha256:4528d765645c7e1c2c4d9dcd4d3770eb935ffdfda9422f0cf49070ea9926ad93 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.983,-62.983,-64.300,-64.300) |
geographic |
Canada Lambda Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Canada Lambda Northwest Territories |
genre |
Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains |
_version_ |
1800875873293828096 |